[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered
strong is from 05N to 07N between 41W and 44W; from 03N to 05N
between 44W and 47W; and from 02N to 05N between 48W and 52W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm elsewhere to
the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico southward between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 07N17W, and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W, to 04N29W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S36W, and
02S41W.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and
within 600 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, from 40W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the central
Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Gentle to
moderate winds are in the Gulf, reaching fresh to locally strong
near the Yucatan Channel. The wave heights range from 4 feet to
6 feet in the western half of the area. The wave heights range
from 1 foot to 3 feet in the eastern half of the area, except to
5 feet in the Yucatan Channel.

Precipitation: numerous strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, between 93W and 96W, with Tropical Storm
Agatha, downgraded from a hurricane, at 31/0300 UTC. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are in
Central America from Honduras and Guatemala to the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, in a broad area of surface low pressure.

High pressure, extending from the western Atlantic Ocean to the
central Gulf of Mexico, will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds
in the western and central Gulf of Mexico, and mainly gentle SE
winds elsewhere through the period. Winds may increase to
locally strong offshore Veracruz tonight. A large area of low
pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and
northwestern Caribbean Sea by mid-week. A tropical depression
could form in the southeastern Gulf or in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea late in the week. There is uncertainty with this
expected system, however, shower and thunderstorm activity as
well as winds will be on the increase for some areas of the
southern and central Gulf going into the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: numerous strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, between 93W and 96W, with Tropical Storm
Agatha, downgraded from a hurricane, at 31/0300 UTC. Widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are in
Central America from Honduras and Guatemala to the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, in a broad area of surface low pressure.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and multilayered
moisture, cover the area that is to the west of the line that
is from Hispaniola to Panama.

The surface pressure gradient, between subtropical high pressure
and lower pressure in Colombia, is supporting fresh to strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds
also are in the far western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 6 feet to
8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea; from 5 feet to 7 feet in
the far western Caribbean Sea; and from 4 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

The subtropical ridge north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Wed
evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across much of
the remainder of the Caribbean into late week. A large area of
low pressure may form in the northwestern Caribbean by mid-week.
A tropical depression could form in the southeastern Gulf or
northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the week. There is
uncertainty with this expected system, however, shower and
thunderstorm activity as well as winds will be on the increase
for the northwestern Caribbean late this week and into the
upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N58W 26N59W 25N60W 23N61W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side
of the surface trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 70W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
covers the area that is from the surface trough westward.

A cold front passes through 31N17W to 29N20W 25N30W, curving to
31N39W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 135 nm on either side of the
cold front.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 35N71W. Light to gentle
winds are near the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere to the north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are south of 20N. The wave heights are in the 2-3 ft range north
of 27N, and west of 60W. The cold front has ushered in a set of
northerly swell, with wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 11
feet to the north of the cold front. The wave heights range from
4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the  discussion area.

The subtropical ridge will change little in the western Atlantic
Ocean through the next few days. An upper trough just northwest
of the area will help to maintain an active weather pattern over
most of the western part of the area through the rest of the
week. Winds will pulse fresh north of Hispaniola into Tue.
Gentle to moderate winds will continue in the remainder of the
region through early Thu.

$$
MT/JA
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