[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W from 02N to 14N, moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 09N between 35W and 45W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, south of 15N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant
convection associated to the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 10N14W and extends to 09N16W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N40W. It resumes west
of a tropical wave near 03N43W to 00N50W. Aside from convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 10W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail in the Gulf, reaching fresh to locally strong near
Yucatan channel. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the western
Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf except to 5 ft in the
Yucatan channel.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to across the central Gulf will maintain moderate to
fresh SE winds over the western and central Gulf and mainly
gentle SE winds elsewhere through the period. Winds may increase
to locally strong offshore Veracruz tonight. A large area of low
pressure may impact the southern Gulf for the latter half of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are
also noted over the far western Caribbean, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the far western Caribbean, and 4-6
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft off the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela into Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean into late
week. A large area of low pressure may form in the far NW
Caribbean late this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of surface troughs lies across the western Atlantic.
One extends from 31N78W to central Florida, with scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection in the vicinity of the
trough. A second trough extends from 31N65W to 27N70W. Isolated
moderate convection is near the southern part of the trough axis.
A third trough extends from 31N58W to 27N60W. Isolated moderate
convection is located within 60 nm east of the trough. High
pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30N61W, and a second area of
high pressure is centered near 31N46W. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the high centers, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
south of 20N. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range north of 27N and west
of 60W. A cold front enters the waters from 31N19W to 26N33W.
This front has ushered in a set of northerly swell, with seas in
the 8-11 ft range north of the front. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail
elsewhere across the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A
weak trough over the Bahamas and bring a broad area of showers
and thunderstorms to the western portions of the area into mid-
week. Winds will pulse fresh north of Hispaniola into Tue. Gentle
to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region
through mid-week.

$$
AL
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