[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from 02N to 14W, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
southern portion of the wave from 03N to 07N between 28W-39W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 58W south of 12N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
behind the wave, south of 07N between 51W-57W and mainly over land.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W to
08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05.5N30W where the flow
is disrupted by a tropical wave. West of the wave, the ITCZ
resumes from 03N37W to the equator at 50W. Scattered to numerous
strong convection is approaching the west coast of Africa north
of 06N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
from 02.5N to 08N between 13W and 29W and from 02N to 05N between
36W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between weak high pressure over the NE Gulf and
lower pressure over Mexico is generating gentle to moderate S-SE
flow across the basin, except fresh winds across the Texas and
upper Mexican coastal waters. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, with
buoys reporting 3-5 ft seas within 120 nm of Texas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are observed over the SE basin due to an
abundance of tropical moisture interacting with a low to middle
level trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to central
Florida.

For the forecast, a stationary front along the northern Gulf
coast will drift northward tonight. Otherwise, weak high pressure
continues across the basin, with moderate anticyclonic flow
prevailing over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds across
the eastern Gulf into early week. Fresh southerly return flow will
develop tonight across the NW waters and continue through early
week. Low pressure may develop over the southern Gulf toward the
end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over Colombia is producing moderate to fresh trade winds
across the Caribbean. An area of strong easterlies is likely
within 180 nm of NE Colombia. Seas are 6-9 ft in the central
basin and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
observed across the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela through early week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean
through early week. Broad low pressure may develop across the west
and northwest Caribbean late in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches across the western Atlantic
supporting a surface trough off the Florida coast. This pattern is
producing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N west of
71W and across southern Florida. Fresh easterly winds are
occurring north of Hispaniola. Anticyclonic winds are gentle to
moderate across the remainder of the western Atlantic with 4-6 ft
seas. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N19W to 22.5N38W.
NE winds are moderate to fresh behind the front with 5-8 ft seas.
A recent scatterometer pass found an area of moderate to fresh NE
winds south of 15N and west of 35W. Winds are gentle to moderate
with 4-6 ft seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak
trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by
mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it
lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate
to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through
early week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the region through early week.

$$
Stripling
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