[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 32W from 02N to 14W is moving westward at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the southern
portion of the wave from 04N to 06N between 30W-34W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 12N, moving
westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 05N29W where the flow is
disrupted by a tropical wave. West of the wave, the ITCZ resumes from
04N34W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 08N and between 12W and 29W and from 02N to
04N between 37W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between weak high pressure over the NE Gulf and
lower pressure over Mexico is generating gentle to moderate S-SE
flow across the basin. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, with buoys
reporting 3-5 ft seas within 120 nm of Texas. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are observed over the SE basin due to an
abundance of tropical moisture.

For the forecast, a stationary front along the northern Gulf
coast will dissipate this afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure
continues across the basin, with moderate anticyclonic flow
prevailing over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds across
the eastern Gulf into early week. Fresh southerly return flow will
develop tonight across the NW waters and continue through early
week. Low pressure may develop over the southwestern Gulf toward
the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over Colombia is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across
the Caribbean. An area of strong easterlies is likely within 180
nm of NE Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central basin and 4-6 ft
elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across
the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, off the coasts of
Colombia and Venezuela through early week. Moderate to fresh
trades will prevail across much of the remainder of the Caribbean
through early week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches across the western Atlantic
supporting a surface trough off the Florida coast. This pattern is
producing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N between
74W and 80W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring north
of Hispaniola. Anticyclonic winds are gentle to moderate across
the remainder of the western Atlantic with 4-6 ft seas. Farther
east, a cold front extends from 31N21W to 23N38W. NE winds are
moderate to fresh behind the front with 6-8 ft seas. A recent
scatterometer pass found an area of moderate to fresh NE winds
south of 15N and west of 35W. Winds are gentle to moderate with
4-6 ft seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak
trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by
mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it
lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate
to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through
early week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the region through early week.

$$
Flynn
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