[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W,
south of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
prevail in the vicinity of the wave mainly along 06N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of
10N and moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with this feature at the present time.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of 17N
and moving westward near 10 kt. No deep convection is observed
near the trough axis at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W
to 02N43W then resumes from 02N46W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from 27N87W to 25N90W. Another trough
prevails over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 21N between 92W-96W. Surface ridging is building
across the basin, with scatterometer data depicting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue building across
the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing
over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will
develop across the NW waters by early next week due to a pressure
gradient building in the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the SW Caribbean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail over northern
Honduras and Guatemala including the Gulf of Honduras. Another
area of scattered convection is noted S of 11N between 78W-83W
related to the monsoon trough. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, with the strongest winds occurring
offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades
prevail. Seas of 4-7 ft are present in the central Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW
Colombia. Seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support
moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through
early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting
fairly tranquil weather conditions over most of the basin.
Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found from offshore northern
Hispaniola to offshore NE Florida, including the Bahamas. A cold
front enters the basin near 31N50W to 26N60W. No deep convection
is associated with this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are noted behind the cold front. A surface trough extends
from 31N35W to 24N46W. Satellite imagery depict a shallow area of
moisture east of the trough producing scattered showers.
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh NE winds are
found east of the trough, mainly N of 29N. Elsewhere, light to
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-6 ft over most of the basin,
except for 5-8 ft N of 30N and between 55W and 58W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through tonight as a cold front moves
across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, winds off the NE
Florida coast will become fresh tonight. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the rest of the region through early next
week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern
Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and into early next
week.

$$
ERA
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