[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC

....TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south
of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted
near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
10N and moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with this feature at the present time.

A SW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of
17N and moving westward near 10 kt. No deep convection is
observed near the trough axis at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W
to 03N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found within
60 nm of the ITCZ between 19W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the coast of Mississippi to
NE Tamaulipas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed ahead of the frontal boundary, especially in the NE Gulf
and N of 25N. Farther south, strong thunderstorms have developed
over the Yucatan peninsula and are moving into the eastern Bay of
Campeche. These storms may produce strong winds as they propagate
westward. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present in the NE
Gulf and offshore northern and western Yucatan, while gentle to
light winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the
basin, with the highest seas affecting the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow can be
expected in the northeast Gulf ahead of the front, with gentle
winds behind it. The front will continue weakening over the
northern Gulf through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will persist
ahead of the front through Fri. By the weekend, high pressure
will settle over the basin, allowing winds to become gentle to
moderate.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong thunderstorms that developed over northern Honduras and
Guatemala are also affecting parts of the Gulf of Honduras. The
rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong
trades in the central Caribbean Sea, including the Windward
Passage, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and
the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar winds were also noted in the Gulf
of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades prevail. Seas of
4-7 ft are present in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras,
with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 2-4
ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean
through early next week. Winds will pulse to strong north of
Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting
fairly tranquil weather conditions over most of the basin.
Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found from offshore northern
Hispaniola to offshore NE Florida, including the Bahamas. A small
area of strong trades was captured by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass at the entrance of the Windward Passage. A weak
cold front enters the basin near 31N49W to 27N61W. No deep
convection is associated with this boundary. Moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds are noted behind the cold front. A surface
trough extends from 25N63W to 31N65W. Satellite imagery depict a
shallow area of moisture east of the trough producing weak
showers. Satellite- derived wind data indicate that fresh NE winds
are found east of the trough, mainly N of 29N. Another weak
surface trough extends from 31N37W to 22N49W and no deep
convection is occurring near the boundary. Elsewhere, light to
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-6 ft over most of the basin,
except for 5-8 ft N of 30N and between 55W and 58W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through Fri night as a cold front
moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, winds off
the NE Florida coast will become fresh to locally strong through
Fri night. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
the rest of the region through early next week. Winds will also
pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas
during the weekend and into early next week.

$$
DELGADO
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