[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240405
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W from 01N to
10N, moving west at 15 kt. This feature remains poorly organized
and drier Saharan air is limiting shower or thunderstorm activity,
particularly on the northern half of the wave. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 01N-04N
between 25W and 32W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
about the wave axis across Venezuela while no significant weather
is occurring over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the African coast near 08N13W
to 00N34W. The ITCZ continues from 00N34W to 01S49W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along the monsoon trough from
02N to 06N, between 08W and 20W. Scattered weak convection is
occurring along the ITCZ from 00N to 02N between 42W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad mid to upper-level troughing over the central to western
Gulf of Mexico is causing scattered moderate convection from 21N
to 27N between 85W and 89W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate
from the E to SE with buoys are reporting 3 to 4 ft seas
throughout the basin. Areas of haze have been affecting some of
the SW Gulf, with visibilities of 3 to 5 miles.

For the forecast, a trough across the western Gulf will move
northwest of the area through tonight. This will support moderate
to fresh E to SE winds Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking
ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu
and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is causing scattered
moderate convection in the NW Caribbean from 20N to 22N between
81W and 87W. Moderate trade winds dominate the Caribbean with
fresh easterlies in the south-central basin. A recent altimeter
pass found 8-10 ft seas from 10N to 16N between 76W and 80W.
Elswhere in the central basin seas are 6-8 ft, with 4-6 ft in the
NW and E Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to
fresh to strong north of Honduras tonight and Tue night. Fresh to
strong winds will also pulse off Colombia at night Thu night
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N72W, leading to fairly
benign weather across the western Atlantic. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center. Farther
south, moderate to fresh ESE winds extend from north of
Hispaniola through the Bahamas to South Florida, including the
Straits of Florida. A weak surface low analyzed near 30N62W is
generating an area of moderate cyclonic flow. In the central
Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N54W. Convection
is weak along the boundary. A recent scatterometer pass found
moderate to fresh SE winds ahead of the front. In the eastern
Atlantic, winds are mainly gentle to moderate with fresh NE winds
near the Canary Islands. Seas are moderate across the basin. 6-8
ft seas dominate north of 27N between 65W and 57W with 3-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from near
Bermuda to the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through Tue
while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift
eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will
move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region
through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east
winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate
northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue,
then subside into Wed.

$$
Flynn
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