[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 11N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This feature remains
poorly organized and drier Saharan air is preventing any shower
or thunderstorm north of 03N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted near the wave axis from 01N-03.5N between 25W
and 29W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W-68W from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is about the wave axis across Venezuela while no
significant weather is occurring over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09.5N13.5W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to
01N43W to 01N50W. Aside fro and from 00N- 08N between 40W- 52Wm
the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-07N between 06W-
18W. Scattered moderate convection isolated strong convection is
also within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 32W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad mid to upper-level troughing is over the central to western
Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a warm front extends from
Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to the central Texas coast. Recent ASCAT
data showed moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the north of
the warm front. A surface trough extends from the western Florida
Panhandle to near 27N87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted along and southeast of the surface trough,
between 85W and 88W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-
level divergence in the area. Another surface trough extends over
the SW Gulf from 26N91.5W to 21.5N95W. Convection near this
feature has ended of recent. Moderate SE winds are likely
occurring east of this surface trough. Moderate to locally fresh
ESE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft across much
of the SW and west-central Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere
across the basin. Areas of haze have been affecting some of the
SW Gulf, with visibilities of 3 to 5 miles.

For the forecast, the warm front will move northwest of the area
through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds
Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it
reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It
will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean between
70W-80W, while mid to upper-level troughing is farther west, over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence
in between these two features is enhancing scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N
between 80W-87W. Scattered showers are also noted farther south,
along the coast of Nicaragua, while strong afternoon convection
over Panama and Costa Rica has grown across the adjacent waters
within 45 nm of the coast. Recent ASCAT satellite data showed
strong E trades over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N
between 70W-77W. An altimeter pass from 23/1030 UTC this morning
shows seas of 10-11 ft off the coast of Colombia from 11N-14N
between 74W-76W. Seas of 7-11 ft likely extend from 10N- 17N
between 70W- 81W. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh SE winds and
seas of 5-6 ft are likely occurring. Mainly moderate winds are
over the E Caribbean and NW Caribbean to the north of 18N. Seas
are 3-5 ft over these moderate wind areas. Dry Saharan air covers
much of the basin today and is helping to limit convection.

There is still enough low level moisture and convergence to
support clusters of heavy rainfall during the next few days across
portions of Costa Rica and western Panama, and also SW Guatemala
and the Mexican state of Chiapas, close to the Pacific coast.
Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local or national meteorological agency for more information
concerning rainfall in these areas.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish starting today as
the pressure gradient across the area weakens. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and
off Colombia through the latter part of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N72W, leading to
fairly benign weather across most of the western Atlantic. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center.
Farther south, fresh ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola
through the Bahamas to South Florida, as well as in the Straits of
Florida. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N42W to 25N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
and east of the front to 40W, and north of 29N. Moderate to
locally fresh S winds are located within this convective area.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
extending from a collapsed high near 34N31W to 1018 mb high
pressure near 21N48W. Generally gentle to moderate winds cover
most of the Atlantic east of 60W. Seas are likely 5-8 ft north of
27N between 38W-60W. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from near
Bermuda to the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through Tue
while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift
eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will
move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region
through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east
winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate
northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue,
then subside into Wed.

For the forecast east of 55W, northerly winds off the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, will increase to near gale
force by midday Tue. Winds there will diminish Wed night.

$$
Stripling
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