[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is developing across Central
America and the adjacent southwest Caribbean today. The monsoon
trough has begun to shift northward, increasing SW winds and
advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy to
extreme rainfall is possible over portions of Guatemala, El
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. There is
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
mountainous terrain. This event is expected to last through
early next week. Please refer to products issued by your local
weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 50W, from 01N
to 14N moving west around 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N-07N between 42W-53W.

A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean with axis south
of 19N along 88W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted south of 20N and west of
81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N15W to
09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 01N49W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N-08W
east of 26W. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough extends
across Central America, reaching the coast near 11N84W near the
border of Costa Rica and Honduras, and extending to 10N75W over
Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted south of 20N west of 81W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NE
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE flow across the
majority of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3-
6 ft in the western Gulf. Divergent upper-level flow is
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 26N and east
of 86W.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
Atlantic through Sun as low pressure develops over the Bay of
Campeche. This will allow for mostly fresh southeast winds over
the western Gulf to expand eastward tonight into Sat. Fresh to
strong southeast winds from the northwestern Caribbean Sea will
surge into the central Gulf waters and Yucatan Channel from from
Sat through Sun, diminishing to fresh speeds Sun night.
Elsewhere, Winds and seas will then diminish slightly across
most of the basin Sun into Mon as the pressure gradient relaxes,
leaving only pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds at
night off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh
return flow is expected over the western Gulf Mon night through
Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event.

The Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure over Central
America associated with the developing Central American Gyre is
forcing fresh to strong NE trades over the central and W
Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades over the E Caribbean.
Seas are 7-9 ft over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the W
Caribbean, and 3-6 ft over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted south of 20N west of 81W
in association with a tropical wave and the developing Central
American Gyre.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase
tonight into the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge
strengthens and broad low pressure over Central America
gradually shifts west to northwestward. The strongest winds and
highest seas are expected to be over parts of the northwestern
and south-central Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will start to diminish across the basin early
next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs stretches
across the basin near 30N. Winds northwest of a line from 30N30W
to 20N70W are gentle or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Southeast of
the line, the NE to E trades are moderate to fresh and with seas
6-9 ft. A dissipating cold front extends from 30N23W
southwestward to 27N30W with showers occurring within 60 NM of
the front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring between
23N-27N west of 75W, forced by upper-level divergent flow.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 28N will
lift north to 30N through tonight and strengthen. This pattern
will support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the region
through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds
north of Hispaniola starting tonight.

$$
Landsea/Aguirre
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