[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200953
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is developing across Central
America and the adjacent southwest Caribbean this morning. The
monsoon trough has begun to shift northward, increasing SW winds
and advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy
rainfall has begun in the SW Caribbean and portions of Nicaragua,
Guatemala and Honduras. Extreme rainfall is possible across the
Pacific coasts of Central America, and also over southern Honduras
and northeast Nicaragua. There is potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, especially across mountainous terrain. This event
is expected to last through early next week. Please refer to
products issued by your local weather service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic with axis along 45W, from 02N
to 11N moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 44W and 53W.

A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean with axis S of
18N along 87W, moving west at 10 kt. A line of moderate convection
behind the tropical wave, associated partly with the CAG, extends
across the SW Caribbean from 16N83W to 10N76W

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N42W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted in the eastern Atlantic
from 03N to 08N between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between surface ridging from the Atlantic and lower
pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE flow
across the majority of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern
Gulf, 4-6 ft in the NW Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western
Atlantic through Sun as low pressure develops over the Bay of
Campeche. This pattern will allow an area of moderate to fresh
southeast winds over the western Gulf to expand eastward tonight
into Sat. From Sat-Sun fresh to strong SE winds will dominate the
Yucatan Channel, central and NW Gulf. Winds and seas will then
diminish slightly across most of the basin Sun into Mon as the
pressure gradient relaxes, leaving only pulses of fresh to
occasionally strong winds at night off the northern and western
Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh SE winds may return to the western Gulf
by Tue as a trough deepens over the southwest Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event.

Surface ridging over the western Atlantic along 26N is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds across the east and central
Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft in these regions, except 7-9 in the
south-central Caribbean. Winds are gentle in the SW Caribbean with
2-4 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh in the NW Caribbean with
4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the basin will increase
tonight into the weekend as the western Atlantic ridge strengthens
and broad low pressure over Central America gradually shifts west
to northwestward. The strongest winds and highest seas are
expected over parts of the northwestern and south-central
Caribbean during this period. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
start to diminish across the basin early next week as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An abundance of tropical moisture is causing scattered moderate
convection across the NW Bahamas. A surface ridge along 26N
covers the western basin , supporting mainly light to gentle
anticyclonic winds, except for moderate S winds along NE FL and
moderate SE winds north of Hispaniola. Trade winds increase to
moderate south of 17N. High pressure dominates the central
Atlantic, with light to gentle winds north of 20N and gentle to
moderate winds south of 20N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to
locally fresh N-NE winds are observed within 500 nm of the
African continent. Seas are slight in the western Atlantic north
of 24N and west of 65W. Seas are generally moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 26N will lift
north to 30N through tonight and strengthen. This pattern will
support mainly gentle to moderate breezes across the region
through early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds north
of Hispaniola starting tonight.

$$
Flynn
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