[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to 240 nm
on either side of the tropical wave, from 15N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 10N20W 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W,
to 03N30W 01N39W, to the Equator along 41W, to the Equator along
45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
09N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to the
central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from
24N northward from 90W eastward.

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 26N93W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the western half of the Gulf of
Mexico. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in Florida
from NW Cuba to 29N82W in Florida.

Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the Gulf of Mexico,
except for moderate winds in the Texas coastal waters. Seas are
1 ft or less east of 90W and in the 1-3 ft range west of 90W.
Ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of
slight to moderate haze mainly in the southwestern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Gulf of Mexico high pressure will maintain gentle to moderate
breezes and slight seas into mid week. SE winds will increase
over the northwest Gulf by late Wed as the high pressure shifts
east of the region. Farther south, fresh northeast winds will
pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and in much of Central America. A surface trough passes from the
southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea from 11N northward, along
81W/83W, beyond NW Cuba, to north central Florida near 29N82W.
The eastern part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is
along 10N75W, through western Panama and southern Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is between Jamaica and the surface
trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other
isolated moderate rainshowers, are in the remainder of the area
that is from 65W westward.

Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds, and wave heights that range
from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from the surface trough eastward. The
only exception is local wave heights that are reaching 8 feet to
the northwest of the northern coast of Colombia. Light to gentle
N-to-NE winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4
feet, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will continue to
support moderate to fresh strong trade winds across the
southeast and south-central Caribbean through mid week, with
stronger winds pulsing off Venezuela and northwest Colombia. The
winds and the seas across the basin may increase through late
week, as the ridge north of the area strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea,
and in the Atlantic Ocean from 65W westward. A surface trough
passes from the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea from 11N
northward, along 81W/83W, beyond NW Cuba, to north central
Florida near 29N82W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 70W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are from from 20N
northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface ridge is along 31N14W, to a 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 26N25W, to a second 1022 mb high pressure
center that is near 25N46W, to 28N56W, beyond 31N60W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
13N northward from 60W westward, and elsewhere in the Atlantic
Ocean from 60W westward. The wave heights range: from 7 feet to
8 feet from 30N northward from 50W eastward; from 07N to 17N
between 25W and 40W; and from 05N to 17N between 40W and 60W.
The wave heights range generally from 3 feet to 6 feet within
360 nm on either side of the surface ridge, with some isolated
areas of wave heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet. The wave
heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 20N
southward. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds are within 1000 nm
to the south of 23N, from 60W eastward. Moderate wind speeds, or
slower, are elsewhere in the same area. Fresh wind speeds are
from 27N northward between 30W and 40W. Moderate wind speeds, or
slower, are elsewhere from 23N northward from 60W eastward.
Fresh wind speeds are within 120 nm to the north of Hispaniola
between 69W and 73W. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are
elsewhere from 60W westward.

Showers and thunderstorms may increase northeast of the northern
Bahamas Mon as an upper level disturbance moves off the Florida
coast. Meanwhile, a surface ridge along 30N will shift east by
Tue ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the north. The
front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area on
Wed, with moderate to fresh southwest winds preceding it. Fresh
to locally strong east to southeast winds north of Hispaniola
will persist through Mon.

$$
mt/ec
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