[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon May 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is across the Windward Islands with axis south of
17N and along 61W/62W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a
unfavorable wind shear environment with no significant convection
noted. Winds associated with this wave are in the 15-20 kt range
with seas in the 6-8 ft range just east of the Windward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 07N18W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to the Equator at 30W and then along the
Equator to northern Brazil near 50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 12W and 15W, and south
of 05N between 30W and 49W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted south of 07N between 49W and 60W,
including over portions of northern South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the NE Gulf of
Mexico and shallow moisture continue to support and area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms as indicated by GLM data. A
surface trough coincides with that region of convection, which
extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N90W. A 1014 mb surface low
is along the trough near 27.5N87W. The remainder basin is under
the influence of weak high pressure anchored by a 1017 mb high
centered near 27N93W, which is providing light to gentle variable
winds across the basin, except moderate in the Texas coastal
waters and in the west-central Gulf offshore waters. Seas are 1 ft
or less east of 90W and in the 1-3 ft range west of 90W. Ongoing
agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of slight to
moderate haze mainly in the southwestern sections of the Gulf of
Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will continue to
produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through midweek.
Fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through Wed night. Fresh southeast return flow is
expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Wed night
due to a tighter pressure gradient over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms prevail over portions of the
central and western Caribbean between 74W and 84W associated with
a surface trough south of 22N with its axis along 83W/84W. The
convection is also being supported by abundant moisture and
middle-to-upper level diffluent flow just to the east of a trough
aloft. East of the trough, moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail,
along with seas in the 4-7 ft range, except locally to 8 ft
northwest of the northern coast of Colombia. Light to gentle N-NE
winds and seas in the 2-4 ft range prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will
continue to support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and
central Caribbean through tonight. Thereafter, moderate trade
winds will prevail across the basin, except for pulsing fresh to
strong easterly winds over the southern portion mainly N of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave along
61W/62W will move across the eastern Caribbean from tonight
through Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to
increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through
midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of the
Bermuda High, which is anchored by a 1023 mb center north of the
area near 34N59W. To the northeast of the Bahamas, between 67W and
73W, middle-to-upper level moisture streaming from the NW
Caribbean and Straits of Florida supports an elongated area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms with earlier scatterometer
data indicating gusty winds, especially north of 29N between 68W
and 72W. Otherwise, the Bermuda high continues to support mainly
moderate to fresh return flow SW of the high between 60W and 74W
with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Over the eastern Florida seaboard,
winds are light to gentle and variable with seas in the 3-5 ft
range in SE swell.

To the east, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N30W
to 29N40W with some isolated showers possible near it. A 1022 mb
high is south of the front near 24N37W with a ridge axis extending
from the Canary Islands through the high to the Bermuda high.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-4 ft are within
150 nm of the ridge axis. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
elsewhere, except fresh to strong near the Cabo Verde Islands
northeast to the coast of Africa from 19N to 23N east of 25W. Seas
are in the 5-8 ft range in NE swell south of 20N, highest west of
40W, and in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere over the open tropical
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the area will
change little through Mon. The high will shift eastward as a cold
front approaches from the northwest on Tue. The front is expected
to reach the northeast part of the area on Wed, with moderate to
fresh southwest winds preceding it. High pressure will rebuild
across the basin toward the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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