[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from
02N15W to 01N30W to the equator at 40W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 13W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge centered over Florida dominates the Gulf
waters. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate
SE-S return flow and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the eastern and
western Gulf while moderate to fresh SE-S winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted across the central basin. An outflow boundary along
the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts is leading to numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection within about 90 nm of the
coast. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
northern Central America is leading to some hazy conditions over
the western Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the E Gulf will
gradually sink southward, promoting generally quiescent conditions
over most of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. A
weak cold front will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night
through Sun, before dissipating while exiting the basin Mon.
Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of
fresh to locally strong winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan
Sun night into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong trades are occurring near the Guajira
Peninsula and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trades having
developed overnight in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate trades prevail, except light to gentle winds in
the lee of Cuba and in the far SW Caribbean, S of 11N. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.
Convection over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola associated
with an upper level trough has dissipated overnight, but moderate
convection prevails along the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High interacting with lower
pressure over Colombia and Venezuela will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean today.
Nightly pulsing fresh to strong trades will also affect the waters
off central Honduras into tonight. The Bermuda High will weaken
Sat as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing
winds to diminish into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough stretches from about 31N70W to the SE Bahamas,
with an associated surface low of 1014 mb NE of the Bahamas.
Convection associated with this weakening system has diminished
overnight. Winds are moderate or less on both sides of this
system. A 1021 mb high pressure center is located SE of Bermuda
near 28N62W. This is inducing moderate or less winds across most
of the basin.

Farther east, weak surface lows near 30N36W and 21N47W are
connected by a surface trough. W of the trough axis, extending
about 200 nm, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring, with
light to gentle mainly SE winds to the E. Scattered moderate
convection as developed along the trough, N of 25N. Seas
throughout the basin are 3 to 5 ft, with an area of 6 ft seas in
the area of moderate to fresh NE winds behind the aforementioned
surface trough in the central Atlantic.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are ongoing just off the coast of Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough and low will dissipate
today. The rest of the area is dominated by the Bermuda High,
which will weaken and migrate eastward into Sat. Fresh to locally
strong S to SW winds will develop north of the Bahamas starting
tonight, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the
Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun and
Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and become
stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind
the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Mon into Tue night.

$$
Konarik
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