[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from
02N15W to 01N30W to the equator at 40W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 15W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the Gulf waters. Under the influence
of this system, gentle to moderate SE-S return flow and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf while moderate to
fresh SE-S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the western
half of the basin. Locally fresh winds are observed to the N and
NW of the Yucatan peninsula where a surface trough is analyzed.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting eastern Texas and
SW Louisiana. This convective activity is reaching the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the N Gulf will gradually
sink southward, promoting generally quiescent conditions over
most of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. A weak
cold front will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night through
Sun, before dissipating while exiting the basin Mon. Meanwhile,
an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan through
Fri, and again Sun night into Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh
to strong trade winds near the Guajira Peninsula in northern
Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
trades dominate the remainder of the basin, with the exception of
light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
across the south-central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except
in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted.

An upper-level trough over the western Atlantic continues to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward passage and
Hispaniola. Similar convective activity is noted over northern
Colombia. Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind
flow, are noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure
over Colombia and Venezuela will maintain fresh to strong trades
across most of the central Caribbean into Fri. Nightly pulsing
fresh to strong trades will also affect the waters off central
Honduras into Fri night. The Bermuda High will weaken Sat as it
slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to
diminish into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough located over the western Atlantic supports
an area of showers and thunderstorms located NE of the Bahamas,
covering mainly the waters from 25N to 28N between 71W and 76W.
At the surface, a weak 1015 mb low pressure has developed near
28N75W, with a trough that extends to east-central Cuba. Recent
scatterometer data confirmed the presence of the low center that
is producing mainly a light to gentle cyclonic flow. A 1021 mb
high pressure remains S of Bermuda near 29N64W. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds are noted just off Hispaniola.

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N37W to 1016 mb
low pressure situated near 21N47W to 17N56W. Recent scatterometer
data indicate the wind shift associated with the trough axis as
well as fresh NE winds on the north side of the low center. Seas
of 5 to 7 ft are seen within this area. A belt of moderate to
fresh NE to E winds is noted within about 210 nm N of the trough
due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure
to the N. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated
by a ridge, anchored by a high pressure located well N of the
forecast region. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6 to
8 ft are near the coast of Morocco. Mainly gentle to moderate
trades dominate the tropics, with seas generally of 4 to 5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, as previously mentioned weak low
pressure centered NE of the Bahamas and an associated trough
passing SW through the central Bahamas is leading to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This system and associated convection
will diminish on Fri. The rest of the area is dominated by the
Bermuda High, which will weaken and migrate eastward Fri into Sat.
Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will develop north of the
Bahamas starting Fri night, ahead of a cold front that is expected
to move off the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast
Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and
become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds
behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas on Mon and
Tue.

$$
GR
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