[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts
to gale force are expected off NE Florida this evening through
Thu evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights of 8-11 ft are expected
with these winds by Thu night.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong southerly flow, with frequent
gusts to gale force, are expected north of 22N and west of 87W
today, with these hazardous marine conditions spreading into the
NE Gulf late today. A strong pressure gradient between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure
over Texas and northern Mexico supports these wind speeds. Seas
are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft across the north-central Gulf
waters this morning.

Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined primarily to the African
Continent near Guinea-Bissau. The ITCZ extends from near 04N14W
to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the ITCZ
axis W of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations confirmed the
presence of fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the Gulf
waters W of 87W. Altimeter data and buoys observations also
indicate seas of 9-12 ft over the NW Gulf. Due to the strong
winds, only a few clouds are noted. The pressure gradient between
high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low
pressure system over the central US and NE Mexico is responsible
for these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are
over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of smoke could be reducing
visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz
and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires
in Mexico.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force
remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the Special
Feature section for details. A cold front will approach the coast
of Texas by this evening, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to
near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu evening. Then, the front will become
stationary while drifting northward through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located north of the Caribbean continues to support
fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the lee of eastern
Cuba, across the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras.
Recent satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these
wind speeds. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, including
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Recent altimeter data show
seas of 3 to 5 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are
over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. Wave
heights of 5-8 ft can be found over the NW Caribbean, and across
the remainder of the central Caribbean. seas of 5-7 ft are E of
the Lesser Antilles.

A stationary front over Hispaniola is producing scattered showers,
with isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds. Patches
of low-level clouds, with possible showers are noted over parts of
Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Gulf of Honduras. Convection
is flare-up over northern Colombia. Elsewhere, shallow moisture
embedded in the trade winds flow is moving westward producing
isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of moisture
are more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south
of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the
Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late tonight.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east
of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat
across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high
pressure weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary front extends from 31N51W to Hispaniola near
20N70W. The front continues to produce abundant cloudiness with
embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola. A
broken band of low level clouds, with possible showers is
associated with the remainder of the frontal boundary. A frontal
trough is analyzed behind the front and extends from 31N60W to
30N73W. Winds are gentle to moderate between the front and trough.
Seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell follow the front mainly N of 28N.

E of the front, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered SW of the
Azores near 35N33W and extends a ridge across the reminder of the
east and central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades are noted per
scatterometer data across the tropical Atlantic where seas are
generally in the 8-9 ft range. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft.

Patches of low level moisture, with possible showers are noted
under the influence of the ridge. Transverse high clouds,
associated with strong upper- level winds can be found from
northern South America all the way NE to W Africa.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will continue
to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well
as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely
through tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast
across the waters south of 23N-24N today through Thu. Strong
southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected
off NE Florida this evening through Thu evening ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The
front will move across the N waters on Sat, then stall and begin
to drift northward on Sun while weakening.

$$
GR
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