[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300432
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
deepening low pressure over Texas and high pressure near Florida
will allow for strong to near-gale force southerly winds with
frequent gusts to gale force across the W Gulf to develop this
evening. These conditions are expected to spread eastward across
most of the Gulf on Wed. Seas in the W Gulf will reach 8 to 10
ft this evening, then 10 to 14 ft by Wed morning before shifting
into the central Gulf Wed afternoon. Please, see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined primarily to the African
Continent near Guinea-Bissau. The ITCZ extends from near 04N14W
to 01S26W to 00S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06S to 04N between 14W and the NW
Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Feature section above on the Gale Warning

A weak 1019 mb high pressure is positioned near Spring Hill,
Florida, near 28N83W. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail
across the basin with only a few cirrus clouds visible on
satellite imagery this evening. The pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge and deepening low pressure system over the
central US is responsible for fresh to strong southerly winds
over most of the western Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
occasionally fresh E-SE winds are found in the eastern Gulf and
Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are present W of 90W, with the
highest seas occurring near the offshore Texas waters. Seas of 2-
5 ft prevail S of 25N and E of 90W, with 1-2 ft elsewhere. Areas
of smoke could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the
coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande
River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly flow and rough seas
will develop across the basin tonight. Frequent gusts to gale
force are expected north of 22N and west of 87W, with building
seas of up to 12 to 14 ft across the central and north-central
Gulf on Wed and Wed evening. These hazardous marine conditions
will be the result of a strong pressure gradient between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure
over Texas and northern Mexico. A cold front will approach the
coast of Texas by Wed evening, and extend from the western
Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. The
front is forecast to stall and gradually dissipate into the
upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 80 nm of
the Panama and Colombia coasts due to lower pressure and
abundant moisture in the region. The rest of the Caribbean Sea
is under tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass reveals fresh to strong trades across the central
and western Caribbean, mainly W of 70W. The strongest winds are
found between the Cayman Islands and the Isle of Youth, Cuba,
within the Windward Passage, and in the offshore waters of NW
Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the south-central
Caribbean, with the highest wave heights occurring offshore NW
Colombia. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the north-central and
western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas
of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will promote
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of
Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba,
and  in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in
the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late Wed
night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will
persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will
diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the upcoming
weekend as the high pressure weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N51W to Hispaniola near 20N70W
and cloudiness with embedded showers are noted within 100 nm
ahead of the frontal boundary. A surface trough is analyzed
behind the front from 31N67W to 29N76W.  Winds between the front
and surface trough are moderate to fresh with the strongest
winds occurring N of 30N. Seas behind the front are 8-10 ft,
mainly occurring N of 28N and between 55W and 71W. Over the
central Atlantic, a 1026 mb high pressure system north of our
area dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, permitting
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE
trades and seas of 6-8 ft are evident in satellite derived winds
from the Equator to 26N and E of 55W. Seas of 6-9 ft in
northerly swell prevail N of 10N between the African coast and
36W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found
elsewhere.

For the forecast,  the aforementioned stationary front will
continue to  support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and
the adjacent waters likely through Wed night. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N-24N
tonight. Winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds east of
the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the
next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri.
The front will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat
and Sat night.

$$
Nepaul
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