[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.
Pressure gradient continues to increase between deepening pressure
over Texas and a high near Florida. This will allow strong to
near-gale force southerly winds with frequent gusts to gale
force to develop across the W Gulf this evening. These conditions
are expected to spread eastward across most of the Gulf on Wed.
Seas at the W Gulf will reach 8 to 10 ft this evening, then 10 to
14 ft by Wed morning before shifting into the central Gulf Wed
afternoon. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over central Africa. An ITCZ
extends from near 02N18W across EQ24W to NW of Sao Luis, Brazil
at 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 05S to 03N between 14W and the NW Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extending from a 1023 mb high near the Florida
Big Bend area to the northern Bay of Campeche is promoting fair
weather across the entire Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at
1 to 3 ft seas are seen near the high across the NE and E central
Gulf. ESE moderate to fresh winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are
present for the SE Gulf, including the Florida Strait. Fresh to
locally strong southerly flow and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf. Areas of smoke could be reducing
visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz
and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires
in Mexico.

For the forecast, please read the Special Feature section above on
a Gale Warning. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected north
of 22N and west of 87W, with building seas of up to 12 to 14 ft
across the central and north-central Gulf on Wed and Wed evening.
A cold front will approach the coast of Texas by Wed evening, and
extend from the W Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by
Thu evening. The front is forecast to stall and gradually dissipate
into the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers over the NW
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. The southwestern end of a
stationary front is triggering similar conditions across
Hispaniola and nearby Caribbean waters. A 1009 mb low pressure is
triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the Panama-Colombia border, and nearby Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident over W
and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate trades along with 4 o 6 ft
prevail across the E gulf.

For the forecast, scattered to widespread showers will linger
over the NW Caribbean through tonight. High pressure N of the
area will promote fresh to strong winds in the S central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage
to S of Jamaica, S of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the
Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late Wed night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist E of
the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat
across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high
pressure weakens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front with no significant weather curves west-
southwestward from just SE of Bermuda across 31N63W to N Florida.
nearly stationary front extends from near 31N53W to the northern
coast of Dominican Republic. Scattered showers are occurring up
to 80 nm SE, and 30 nm NW of this front. Otherwise, the Atlantic
ridge extending from a 1028 mb Azores High across 31N40W to near
Puerto Rico is dominating most of the Atlantic Basin. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NW winds along with 6 to 10 ft seas in NW swell
exist N of 26N between 52W and 73W. Moderate to fresh NE trades
and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident from Equator to 25N between 31W
and 51W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in northerly swell prevail N of 10N
between the African coast and 36W. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the nearly stationary front will continue to
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as
some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely
through Wed night. A cold front from 29N65W to just north of the
NW Bahamas will weaken as it quickly pushes east of the area by
tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the
waters south of 23N-24N today. Winds will increase to fresh to
strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through
Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much south of 30N
while weakening Sat and Sat night.

$$

Chan
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