[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force.
Strong southerly winds and rough seas will spread eastward across
most of the Gulf region this evening through Wed. Frequent gusts
to gale force are expected, with building seas of up to 12 or 13
ft across the north-central Gulf on Wed. These hazardous marine
conditions will be the result of a strong pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening
low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico. Please, see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Most of the convective activity is S of the
ITCZ axis, and S of the equator.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W
dominates the basin. This system is providing a fairly stable
airmass to suppress any shower activity. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and 1-3 ft seas are over the eastern Gulf near the high
pressure center. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds are
present over the western half of the Gulf, except locally strong
off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of 3-5 prevail,
except as high as 6-7 ft off the NW Yucatan. Areas of smoke could
be reducing visibilities to 3-5 miles within 90 nm of the coast of
Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River,
due to agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning has been issued for frequent
gusts to gale force. Please, see the Special Features section for
more details. A cold front will approach the coast of Texas by
Wed evening, and extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras,
continues to support abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers
across the area. A stationary front over Hispaniola is producing
scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms as well as some
gusty winds. Convection is flare-up over northern Colombia and
eastern Panama. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade
winds flow is noted producing isolated to scattered passing
showers.

Recent ASCAT satellite wind data provide observations of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the lee of
Cuba, and downwind to the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh winds
are just south of Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Recent altimeter data show
seas of 4 to 6 ft between the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia and
the southern coast of Haiti. Seas of 8-10 ft are over the south-
central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. Wave heights of
5-7 ft can be found over the NW Caribbean, and across the
remainder of the central Caribbean, with 3-4 over the eastern
part of the basin.

For the forecast, the shear-line over the NW Caribbean will keep
lingering showers over that area through at least tonight. High
pressure north of the area will promote fresh to strong winds in
the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across
the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee
of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing
in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage Wed night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east
of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat
across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high
pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary front extends from near 31N54W to the northern
coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. A broken band of low level clouds,
with possible showers is associated with the frontal boundary. In
the wake of the front, a 1022 mb high pressure is located over the
central Bahamas and dominates the western Atlantic, the Bahamas
and Florida. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of
fresh to strong W-NW winds across the waters N of 29N between 65W
and 74W where seas are in the 8-9 ft range. Light and variable
winds are near the high pressure center while mainly moderate NE
winds are noted near Hispaniola. Seas are 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas.
An east-west oriented cold front is along 31N, between 70W and
the coast of Georgia. This front is forecast to move quickly SE
across the western Atlantic and reinforce the aforementioned
stationary front on Wed.

E of the front, a 1027 mb high pressure is centered SW of the
Azores near 33N37W and dominates the east and central Atlantic. A
surface trough crosses between the coast of W Africa and the
Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong N winds are seen between
the western Canary Islands based on scatterometer data. Seas are
8-10 ft over most of the region N of 10N and E of 35W.

For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty
winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through Wed
night. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to
strong easterly winds across the waters S of 23N- 24N beginning
today. Winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds east of
the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the
next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The
front will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat
night.

$$
GR
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