[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure north
of the area and lower pressure over South America will once again
pulse winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach
12 ft. These conditions will gradually afterwards and through
the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 01N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N27W and to near the coast
of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 240 nm southeast of the trough between
13W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02S to 02N
between 33W-38W and west of there from 01S to 03N between 38W
to just inland the coast of Brazil from the Equator to 03N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northeastern Florida southwestward to
across north-central Florida, to near Tampa and continues
southwestward to 25N86W and to inland the central Yucatan
Peninsula. A trough follows in behind the front from near
Apalachicola to 28N89W. The combination of these features with
very deep moisture southwesterly flow ahead of a broad upper
trough that stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwestward
to Texas is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving northeastward from over the NE Gulf to inland northern
Florida. Patches of rain along with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted elsewhere along near the front. Broken
to overcast mid to upper-level clouds are elsewhere southeast
of a line from Mobile to 26N91W and to just south of Tampico.
Clear skies under building high pressure are evident northwest of
these clouds. A dry cold front has recently moved to a position
along the Texas coast from near Galveston to Matagorda Bay and
continues to inland southern Texas. Fresh to strong southwest are
ahead of this front to near 94W. Mainly moderate northwest winds
are northwest of this front. Winds E of 94W are northwest, fresh
in intensity, to the eastern Gulf front. Winds east of this front
are southerly, moderate to fresh in speeds. Latest altimeter data
passes show waveheights of of 3-5 ft throughout, except for higher
wave heights of 4-7 ft in the central and NE Gulf sections.

As for the forecast, the eastern Gulf cold front will move across
the SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula today, and then over the
northwestern Caribbean and western Cuba tonight into Fri morning.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue along and near the
front through this evening. A weak cold front will enter the NW
Gulf today and bring fresh to locally strong winds on either side
of it. This front will move mainly across the northern Gulf waters
reaching the NE Gulf by Fri and exit the basin by Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions, with the
exception of some patches of low-level moisture moving westward
in the trade wind flow across the eastern, north-central
and northwestern sections of the sea. Isolated showers are
possible with these patches of moisture.

Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate the basin, except fresh to
strong in the south-central Caribbean and south- southwest of
Haiti. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of
Honduras. Wave heights are in the 8-12 ft range in the south-
central Caribbean, 6-8 ft south-southwest of Haiti, and mainly
4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sustain
pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will
continue in the eastern Caribbean through Fri night. A cold front
is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean late tonight,
bringing fresh to locally strong winds across the Yucatan Channel
and Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The front will gradually
dissipate through the weekend. Fresh trade winds, along with large
trade-wind swell over the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will
continue through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh to strong southeast to south winds are off the NE Florida
coast. Showers and thunderstorms continue to stream off the
FLorida coast northward out of the forecast waters, N of 29N and W
of 78W. Wave heights are in the range of 6-8 ft. To the east-
northeast of these conditions a 1026 mb high is analyzed just
east of Bermuda near 32N63W, with a ridge extending southwestward
to the Bahamas and to eastern Cuba. Generally gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is around the high and ridge axis along with
wave heights of 3-5 ft seas north of about 26N and between 62W-
71W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west
of 65W, except for locally fresh to strong east to southeast winds
north of Hispaniola to near 22N per latest ASCAT data pass. Wave
heights are in the 4-7 ft range across the remainder of the waters
west of 65W aided by mixed northeast and southeast swell.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends into the area from
near 31N39W to 25N49W, and transitions to a trough to 23N58W.
Scattered showers are noted along and within 60 nm southeast of
the front. Isolated showers are possible along and within 60 nm
south of the trough between 49W-55W. A 1022 mb high center is
present to the south of the front near 24N41W. A post-frontal
trough extends from near 31N43W to 28N47W and to 26N52W. Isolated
showers are possible along this trough east of 46W. Visible
satellite imagery shows a broad area of cold-air stratocumulus
clouds advecting southeastward behind the trough. Latest ASCAT
data passes depict fresh to strong northwest winds behind the
post-frontal trough. Northwest swell producing wave heights of
9-14 ft has propagated south to 29N and west of the aforementioned
cold front to 56W. Wave heights of 8-12 ft are elsewhere north of
26N and west of the front to 60W.

In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure ridging supported by a
1024 mb high center north of the area near 32N26W covers this
part of the Atlantic. Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of
the ridge axis, where wave heights are in the 5-6 ft range. Fresh
to locally strong northeast winds are noted elsewhere southeast
and south of the ridging, except for moderate to fresh south of
20N and west of 55W. Wave heights of 7-11 ft are over the waters
southeast and south of the ridging.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola,
including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds tonight.
Fresh to strong southeast to south winds off northeastern Florida
will continue today ahead of a cold front that will push off the
NE Florida coast by this afternoon. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will persist ahead of the front over the waters north
of 27N through Fri. Mainly fresh northwest winds are expected in
the wake of the front. A second cold front will move into the
western Atlantic Fri night, bringing another round of fresh to
strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure
off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it
south- southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
the area north of 25N between 25W-50W, Thu night through Fri
night, spreading eastward through upcoming weekend. Wave heights
are forecast to build to the range of 10-17 ft over the area
affected by these winds.

$$
Aguirre
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