[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds are pulsing to gale force through
1200 UTC and will do it again tonight. Seas will peak around 12
ft on this morning. Winds and seas should gradually diminish by
the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ extends from 01N20W to 02S29W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06S to 04N between 09W and 23W and W of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to
23N44W to the coast of Mexico in the eastern Bay of Campeche near
19N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues
to train along and west of the front N of 23N between 83W and 91W.
Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the southeast Bay of
Campeche. Recent buoy data depict 8 ft seas across the southwest
Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are noted west of the
front, with moderate to fresh S winds east of the front. Seas are
3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft east of the front.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected
behind the front today, mostly in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The
front will move over the Yucatan Peninsula today, and then over
the NW Caribbean and W Cuba tonight into Fri morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue along the front through this evening.
A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu and bring fresh to
locally strong NW winds behind it. This front will arrive at the
NE Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Sat evening.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Moderate to
fresh trades dominate the basin, except fresh to strong in the
south-central Caribbean and south-southwest of Haiti. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
8-12 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft south-
southwest of Haiti, and mainly 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain
pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will
prevail in the E Caribbean through Fri night. A cold front is
expected to move into the NW Caribbean late tonight, bringing
fresh to locally strong winds across the Yucatan Passage and Gulf
of Honduras through Fri. The front will gradually dissipate
through the weekend. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-
wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will
persist through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted off the NE Florida
coast. Showers and thunderstorms continue to stream off the
FLorida coast northward out of the forecast waters, N of 29N and W
of 78W. Seas range 5-7 ft. To the east of the area, a 1025 mb
high pressure is centered near 32N67W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are under the high along with 3 to 5 ft seas,
from roughly north of 26N between 62W and 71W. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west of 65W, locally fresh to
strong north of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the
remainder of the waters west of 65W in mixed swell. Farther east,
a surface trough extends from 31N42W to 24N60W. Scattered showers
are noted along the trough mainly N of 26N. Fresh to locally
strong winds are noted in the central Atlantic north of 29N
between 35W and 55W. Stronger winds are noted north of 31N due to
a large and complex gale- force low pressure system well north of
the area. NW to N swell from that system is likely currently
reaching as far south as 27N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft from 29N to
30N over the central Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails from a
1027 mb high pressure north of the area and southwest of the
Azores. Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of the ridge
axis, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are noted elsewhere southeast and south of the ridging, except
moderate to fresh south of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 7 to 11
ft across the waters southeast and south of the ridging.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola,
including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong tonight.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE Florida are going to continue
through this morning. A cold front will push off the NE Florida
coast later this afternoon. It will maintain fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front and northerly winds behind it
over the waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will
move into the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing another round of
fresh to strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low
pressure off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through
Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward,
bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N
between 25W and 50W, Thu night through Fri night, spreading
eastward through upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to build to
10 to 17 ft over the area of these winds.

$$
AReinhart
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