[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to
the Straits of Florida. NW winds to gale force persist within 90
nm west of the front north of 28N through the remainder of the
overnight hours, but will diminish below gale force through the
early morning. Seas are reaching 12 to 16 ft in this region. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to
03N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 01N to 04N between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front moved southeast of the Gulf late yesterday evening.
Fresh to strong NE winds are evident over most of the eastern and
south-central Gulf with 8 to 12 ft seas. Strong to near-gale
force NW to N winds are noted over the far southwest Gulf. Gentle
breezes and subsiding seas are occurring over the far northwest
Gulf, where high pressure is building. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through late today
as the high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf.
The high pressure will shift east of the area through Mon,
allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up over
the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is
expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue,
and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will
diminish through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas are evident over the far
northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel, following a cold front
extending from western Cuba to near northern Belize. Moderate to
fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over the eastern
Caribbean with fresh to strong winds off Colombia with seas to 8
ft. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. A few
thunderstorms are active near San Andres Island, due to upper
divergence near an upper trough. No other significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras tonight then dissipate through Mon. High
pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will
allow increased trade winds and building seas over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking ahead, a
second front will stall and dissipate across the Yucatan Channel
by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by
late Thu. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of
Florida. In addition to the gale force winds mentioned in the
Special Features section above, buoy data show strong to near-gale
force winds persist west of the front. Seas to 18 ft are being
reported at buoy 41002 near 32N75W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
noted within 210 nm east of the front with rough seas. A few
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the central Bahamas ahead
of the front. Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure is centered near
32N42W, with a ridge axis extending to the central Bahamas. Gentle
to moderate SE breezes are noted along the ridge axis with 5 to 7
ft seas. Fresh to occasionally strong E trade winds are noted
elsewhere south of the ridge and south of 25N with 6 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, strong to gale-force winds between
northeast Florida and Bermuda following a cold front reaching from
31N73W to the Straits of Florida. Winds will diminish through the
morning as the front continues to move to the southeast. The
front will stall from 26N65W to central Florida tonight, then will
lift north and dissipate through Mon. Rough seas are expected to
linger through early next week northeast of the Bahamas in NW
swell, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell
northeast of the Leeward Islands will mix with the NW swell by mid
week and persist into late Thu.

$$
Christensen
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