[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

The current cold front passes through the Florida Straits to the
NE Yucatan Peninsula. Gale-force winds are in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force winds are
elsewhere, except the far NW Gulf. The sea heights range from 10
feet to 13 feet. The comparatively highest sea heights are in
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The front is forecast to
continue to move toward the east and southeast. Strong northerly
winds, with frequent gusts to gale-force, will continue to
affect most of the basin through this evening. The sea heights
will subside to ranges from 8 feet to 12 feet by Sunday morning,
as high pressure builds into the area behind the front.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front passes through the western Atlantic Ocean,
and beyond the Straits of Florida, and beyond NW Cuba.
Gale-force southwest winds are from 32N northward, to the east
of the cold front. Gale-force NW winds are to the north and
northwest of the cold front. The winds will shift to the
northwest as the front passes, and they will maintain gale-force
wind speeds through the night. The sea heights will build to the
range of 10 feet to 15 feet to the north of 30N from 70W
westward. The wind speeds will begin to diminish on Sunday
morning. The sea heights will subside to ranges from 8 feet to
12 feet by Monday morning, as high pressure builds into the area
behind the front.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from
03N17W, to the Equator along 25W, to 03S35W, to the Equator
along 44W, to the eastern coast of French Guiana. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong from 02N to 06N between 11W and
18W, and between 05W and 13W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the gale-force winds that are in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

The cold front of 24 hours ago has exited from the Gulf of
Mexico. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 13 feet.
Gale-force wind speeds still are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Strong winds cover much of the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. Some fresh to strong winds are in parts of the NW corner
and in parts of the north central Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front moved southeast of the area earlier this
evening. Winds to gale force persist off the coast of Veracruz,
as high pressure builds in the northern Gulf in the wake of the
front. The high pressure will shift east of the area through
Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast
return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold
front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late
on Mon night, and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will precede
and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida, to NW Cuba,
to the SE Yucatan Peninsula, through NW Guatemala, into the
eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the northern sections of Guatemala and in the
southern sections of Belize. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
to the north of the cold front. The sea heights that are in the
SE Gulf of Mexico, near the Yucatan Channel, are reaching 12
feet and 13 feet.

An Atlantic Ocean surface ridge ends near 23N70W. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are from 70W eastward, and within 150 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within
150 nm of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 5
feet to 7 feet elsewhere.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds, that
are moving through the area, in the trade wind flow.

A cold front is moving across the Yucatan Channel into the NW
Caribbean Sea, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas to the area. The trade wind flow will increase to
fresh to strong speeds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,
from late Sun night through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact
the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles well into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the gale-force winds that are in the western Atlantic
Ocean. Gale-force northerly winds are to the north and northwest
of the cold front that passes through 31N74W beyond the Straits
of Florida. Gale-force southerly winds are from 32N northward to
the east of the cold front.

Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and isolated
strong, is between Andros Island in the Bahamas and Cuba. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere to the northwest of the line that
passes through 31N66W to SE Cuba.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. A
1030 mb high pressure center is near 32N42W. Fresh to strong
winds cover nearly the entire area of the Atlantic Ocean from
70W eastward. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 13 feet from
13N northward from 30W eastward. Most of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 50W eastward is covered with sea heights
that range from 7 feet to 10 feet. The small exception is the
area that is from 10N southward between 30W and 50W, with sea
heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet. The sea heights range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 50W westward.

Strong to gale-force winds are occurring along a strong cold
front that extends from 31N73W to western Cuba. Gale-force winds
will diminish overnight, but fresh to strong winds will persist
behind the front Sun. Rough seas are expected to linger through
early next week, then slowly subside through Wed night.
Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles
into early next week
as this swell event will be reinforced by another set of swell.

$$
mt/ec
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