[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110434
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in
the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf
along the Mexican coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the
front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8 to 15 ft across
the northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat.
Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the sub-
tropical western Atlantic mid-day Sat. Gale-force SW winds will
begin to develop in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As the
front passes, winds will shift to NW, while maintaining gale
strength through Sat night. Seas will build 12-16 ft north of 28N
and west of 60W. Winds will decrease early Sun with seas abating
early Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends into the eastern Atlantic from the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N17W to the Brazilian coast near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm along the length of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the basin.

Broad troughing extends across the northern Gulf along the
remnants of an old stationary front. A few isolated thunderstorms
are observed in the northeast Gulf near this feature. Marine
conditions are generally favorable throughout the basin with
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the trough will slowly dissipate through early
Fri. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in the central
Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to enter the NW
Gulf Fri evening. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front over the western and north-
central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to
near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across
the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate to fresh easterly flow across the basin. Strong winds are
noted near Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are
moderate throughout the basin. 8-10 ft swell is observed just
east of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will
end in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is
expected to move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean
Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to
the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E
swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the basin.

A surface trough extending from 31N75W to south Florida near
27N80W is generating a line of thunderstorms and fresh southerly
winds in the western Atlantic. Otherwise, a 1029 mb high pressure
near 30N46W in the central Atlantic dominates the pattern. Fresh
to locally strong NE to E winds are observed across the basin from
10N to 25N, with lighter winds to the north and south. Rough seas
of 8-10 ft are observed within this region. Long period swell is
propagating into the central sub-tropical Atlantic from storms
farther north. A recent altimeter pass found 10 ft swell in the
light winds near the high pressure center.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail
across the NE Florida waters tonight. Winds will increase fresh to
strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a strong cold
front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale conditions
are expected ahead and behind the front Sat. Rough seas are
expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell that has
been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside
today, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the
weekend.

$$
FLYNN
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