[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in
the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf
along the Mexico coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the
front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the
northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds
will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from coastal
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N16.5W. The ITCZ continues from
02N16.5W to 00N20W to 00N40W to the Brazilian coast near 0.5S47W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5S to
04N between 05W and 21W, from 04S to 01N between 23W and 45W, and
S of 04.5N between 45W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the basin.

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend near
30N84W to 27N88W. Weak 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed along the
front near 29N85W. A line of thunderstorms up to 60 nm wide is ahead
of the boundary stretching from 26.5N88W to 26.5N82.5W. A surface
trough extends from the tail end of the front to the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate NE winds prevail north of the front, while
moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of it covering the
southeastern Gulf. Moderate N-NW winds are west of the surface
trough. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data note 3 to 5 ft
seas across the basin except 5 to 6 ft across central portions to
the S of the low center.

The front will linger in the central Gulf while gradually
dissipating today. Moderate winds will prevail behind the front
today. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in the
central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to enter
the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front over the western and north-
central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong to
near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front across
the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh winds
south of Hispaniola, north of Colombia, and north of the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the basin except for north
of Colombia, where seas are up to 9 ft, and south of Hispaniola
were seas are 6-8 ft.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night.
Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of Honduras by
Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to
strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 1015 mb low pressure near 33N75W to
31N75W to just offshore Cape Canaveral, Florida. Morning
scatterometer satellite pass depicted a sharp wind shift around a
trough with fresh NNW winds north of the trough and fresh S winds
south of it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within
180 nm SE of the trough to the coast of central Florida. Otherwise,
a 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 31N43W, and anchors a
broad E to W surface ridge across the Atlantic. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted N of 24N with 5 to 8 ft seas, except
8 to 10 ft in new NW swell N of 28N and E of 45W. Fresh to strong
winds are noted S of 24N between 35W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
in this area in generally NE to E swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail
across the NE Florida waters through tonight. Winds will
increase fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night
ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic
on Sat. Gale conditions are expected ahead and behind the front
Sat. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week.
Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of
Puerto Rico will subside today but continue to impact the Lesser
Antilles through the weekend.

$$
Stripling
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