[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW
Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the
NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf along
the Mexico coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the front
quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-14 ft across the
northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat.
Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from coastal
Guinea near 09N13W to 03N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from
00N28W to the Brazilian coast near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
with isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough
from 02S to 06N between 12W and 24W. Isolated weak convection is
noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the basin.

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
30N86W to 26N92W to the southern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W.
Overnight ASCAT data and buoys have been reporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate seas north and west of the front, with
gentle winds and slight seas in the central and eastern Gulf.
Expect moderate southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and
moderate SE winds in the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the stationary front will linger in this area
and gradually dissipate today. Moderate winds will prevail behind
the front today. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop in
the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front expected to
enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and very rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western and
north-central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and Sat. Strong
to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front
across the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh to
strong winds near the coast of the Dominican Republic, Colombia
and Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the majority of the
basin. Isolated thunderstorms are noted south of the Dominican
Republic.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of the
Dominican Republic today and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat
morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to
strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front along the SE United States is generating moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds along the northern coast of Florida.
Scattered thunderstorms are noted N of 29N and W of 77W. Otherwise,
a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 31N47W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted under the high pressure N of 26N with
5-8 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 26N between 35W
and 65W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area in generally NE to E
swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail
across the NE Florida waters through tonight. Winds will increase
fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night ahead of a
strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat. Gale
conditions are possible ahead and behind the front Sat. Rough
seas are expected Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, swell
that has been impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will
subside Thu, but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through
the weekend.

$$
AReinhart
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