[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic from the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Guinea and extends to the central
Atlantic near 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from this location to the
Brazilian coast near 01S45W. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is noted from 03S to 06N between 10W and 28W.
Isolated strong convection is also noted in the Gulf of Guinea.
Isolated weak convection is noted within 420 nm of the ITCZ in the
western Atlantic.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche. Buoys are reporting moderate to fresh NE winds
and moderate seas north and west of the front, with gentle winds
and slight seas in the central Gulf. Expect moderate southerly
winds in the Yucatan Channel and moderate SE winds in the Florida
Straits.

For the forecast, the stationary front will remain stalled
through Thu before gradually dissipating. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail behind and ahead of the front through Thu. A strong
cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale
force winds and very rough seas are expected in the wake of the
front over the west and central parts of the Gulf waters Fri night
and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will
follow this front across the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh to
strong winds near the coast of the Dominican Republic, Colombia
and Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the majority of the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of the
Dominican Republic Thu, and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat
morning. A cold front is expected to move across the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to
strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front along the SE United States is generating fresh
southerly winds along the northern coast of Florida along with
scattered thunderstorms. Otherwise, a 1028 mb high pressure
centered near 29N52W dominates the pattern in the Atlantic.
Observations are indicating gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
north of 23N with moderate to fresh NE wind south of 23N.
Altimeter data is indicating 6-10 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong southerly winds
will prevail across the waters E of NE Florida through tonight.
Winds will increase again in that area Fri night into Sat morning
ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic
on Sat. Gale conditions and very rough seas are possible ahead and
behind the front Sat and Sun. Elsewhere, swell that has been
impacting the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico will subside Thu,
but continue to impact the Lesser Antilles through the weekend.

$$
FLYNN
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