[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Liberia near
07N12W and continues to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to
0.5N30W to 02S39W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered
to numerous strong convection is within 150 nm S of the monsoon
trough between 06W and 19W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is S of 03.5N between 21W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
31N86W to a 1012 mb low pressure center near 27N95.5W, then
extends southward to N of Veracruz in Mexico near 20N96.5W.
Broken to overcast low and middle level clouds with isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the northwest of the stationary front
in the coastal waters of Louisiana and Texas and extend southward
to 20N to the W of the front. Coastal fog across the Texas coastal
waters has burned off this afternoon.

Moderate to fresh NNW winds prevail W of the front across the
Texas and Mexico waters, where seas are 4-7 ft. E and SE of the
front, moderate S to SE winds prevail with seas of 2-5 ft.

The front will transition to a cold tonight and extend from Cape
San Blas to the Bay of Campeche Wed evening where it will stall
before gradually dissipating by Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will
be behind and ahead of the front through Wed night. A strong cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Strong to near
gale-force winds and rough seas will follow this front, except
for gale-force winds possibly developing along the Mexico coast
Fri night through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly fresh easterly winds cover the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea. Localized strong winds are near
the coast of Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft. The conditions are
more favorable in the NW Caribbean Sea, with moderate E to SE
winds and seas that range from 3 to 5 feet. Generally dry and
stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that are moving
through the SE Caribbean east of 64W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night.
Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of Hispaniola Thu
night, and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is
expected to move into the NW Caribbean Sat early in the evening
followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Otherwise,
fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to
impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends generally E to W across the Atlantic
basin, from a 1026 mb high pressure center near 31N45W. The ridge
continues WSW to central Florida along 27.5N, and to the ENE to a
1022 mb high center near 33N15W. Mainly moderate anticyclonic
winds are seen from 24N northward to the W of 55W. The pressure
gradient increases south of 24N across the entire Atlantic Ocean,
where mostly NE to E fresh winds dominate, with seas of 8 to 10
ft. Scattered moderate showers prevail across the waters S of 18N
and W of 50W. Meanwhile, a narrow line of scattered moderate
convection is occurring just N of the area offshore of NE Florida
and Georgia, within 90 nm SE of a cold front that extends from
beyond 34N71W to the Georgia coast along 31.5N81.5W.

Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through Fri, except
for locally strong winds developing off the NE Florida offshore
waters tonight through Wed. Moderate E tradewind swell that has
been impacting the offshore waters of the NE Caribbean will
subside Thu. A strong cold front is expected to push off the
Florida coast on Sat. Strong to near gale force southerly winds
will develop off the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the
front, briefly increasing to gale force Sat morning. Strong to
near-gale force northerly winds will quickly follow the front with
building seas affecting the most of the area through Sun morning.

$$
Stripling
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