[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from
01N20W, to the Equator along 32W, to 02S40W, and 02S46W in
Brazil. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the
coastal waters and the coastal plains of Africa from 03N to 07N
between 04W and 12W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
30N87W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 25N96W, to
N of Veracruz in Mexico near 20N96W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers
are to the northwest of the stationary front in the coastal
waters of Louisiana and Texas; from 27N southward from 88W
eastward; and from 22N southward from 92W westward in the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong N to NE winds have been to the northwest of the front off
the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. Fresh winds have been
off the coast of south central and SE Louisiana. Earlier buoy
observations were showing that the sea heights were ranging from
5 feet to 8 feet in the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong N winds
are to the west of the front to the coast of Mexico. Mainly
gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet,
are elsewhere, to the east of the front, . An exception is
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the Florida Straits,
and off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Some fog was
lingering to the east of the front in the north central Gulf,
with visibilities less than 2 nm at times.

Areas of dense fog continue to linger in the NW Gulf, in the
vicinity of a stationary front that extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 30N87W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center near
25N96W, to N of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N96W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds will follow the front through Wed night, as the
boundary slowly pushes eastward into the central Gulf before
stalling and then dissipating gradually by Thu. A strong cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force
winds are possible along the Mexico coast from Fri night through
Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas are expected
to impact most of the basin through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly fresh easterly winds cover the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea. Localized strong winds are near
the coast of Colombia. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8
feet. The conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean Sea,
with moderate E to SE winds and sea heights that range from 4
feet to 5 feet. Fresh winds are in the Gulf of Honduras.
Relatively dry spans the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the low level clouds that are moving through
the area, in the trade wind flow: now from 15N southward between
60W and 70W, from 16N between 70W and 80W, and from 80W
westward.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Fri night.
Fresh to locally strong winds will end south of the Dominican
Republic Thu night, and in the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning.
A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Sea Sat
early in the evening followed by fresh to strong winds and
building seas. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE
to E swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N15W, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near
31N45W. The ridge continues from 31N45W, 30N60W, 28N75W, beyond
central Florida. Mainly moderate anticyclonic winds are from 26N
northward from 65W westward. The pressure gradient increases
south of 24.5N in the western Atlantic Ocean, with buoys
reporting fresh easterly winds and 8 ft seas east of the
southern Bahamas. The sea heights elsewhere are ranging from 6
feet to 8 feet. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N
northward from 30W eastward, and from 20N northward between 40W
and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
27N northward within 180 nm to the east of Florida.

Light to gentle winds are from 28N northward, with seas 5-7 ft.
Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the waters that are from 28N
southward between 35W to 65W, with the sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 10 feet in mostly easterly swell. Fresh winds are off
the coast of Western Sahara, with the sea heights ranging from 5
feet to 8 feet.

Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through Fri, except
for locally strong winds developing off the NE Florida offshore
waters tonight through Wed. Swell that has been impacting the
waters off the Bahamas and portions of the Greater Antilles will
subside by tonight. A strong cold front is expected to push off
the Florida coast on Sat. Strong southerly winds will develop
off the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the front. Strong to
near-gale force winds will expand in areal coverage on Sat
behind the front with brief gale force winds possible along with
building seas.

$$
MT
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