[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Updated to include the 1200 UTC Intermediate Advisory for
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the 1200 UTC Tropical Weather
Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 73.43 at
30/1200 UTC or 620 nm E of Bluefields, Nicaragua, moving W at 17
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12
ft within 120 nm northern semicircle from the center. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is in the central and eastern
Caribbean between 66W and 76W. Some decrease in forward speed with a
continued motion toward the west is forecast on Friday and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday
while the system approaches Central America. Weakening is
expected while the system crosses Central America, but
restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it moves over the
Pacific Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Western Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite and radar imagery
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area
of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas are showing
limited signs of organization. The disturbance is forecast to turn
northward and move slowly inland over southeastern Texas later
today. Slow development of this system is possible while the low
remains over water and it could still become a short-lived
tropical depression before it moves inland. Regardless of
development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the
Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about the
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your
National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this
afternoon, if it remains over water. Please see the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 25W,
extending from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 17W and 30W.

A pair of tropical waves are in the western Atlantic, one with
axis along 49W and the other along 54W, each moving at 20 kt and
15 kt, respectively. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
14N between 46W and 56W. These two waves are forecast to merge
late today and move over the Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean
Fri and Sat.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 87W, S of
18N, moving W near 15 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 05N47W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 07N between 26W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information on a low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf.

The main feature in the gulf is the area of low pressure mentioned
above, which has a medium chance of development into a tropical
depression. This system is generating scattered showers and tstms
across the coastal and offshore waters of SW Louisiana and Texas.
Moderate to fresh winds are associated and in the vicinity of this
low. Moderate return flow is across the remainder western half of
the gulf while light to gentle variable winds are E of 90W. Seas
are between 1-3 ft, highest over the NW basin.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail basin-wide during the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 12.0N 72.4W 1009 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving W at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two. The pressure gradient between Two and the
Atlantic ridge to the north continue to support mainly fresh trade
winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the
north-central and portions of the SW basin. Seas in these regions
fluctuate between 7 to 10 ft. The far western Caribbean is under
the influence of gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, Two will move to 12.0N 75.3W this afternoon,
11.5N 79.0W Fri morning, 11.1N 81.9W Fri afternoon, inland to
11.1N 84.6W Sat morning, 11.1N 87.1W Sat afternoon, and 11.5N
89.6W Sun morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves
near 12.8N 95.2W early Mon. A tropical wave with axis near 54W
will merge with a trailing wave late today and move across the
Lesser Antilles along with a surge of winds and waves on Fri. The
wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Sat, and the
central Caribbean on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature covering the subtropical Atlantic waters is a
ridge, which is favoring fair weather. This is supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds S of 26N in the western and central
subtropical basin and fresh to locally strong NE winds off the
coast of NW Africa where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range.
Otherwise, see the tropical waves section.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging is forecast to prevail
through the forecast period supporting return flow in the SW N
Atlantic offshore waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the passage of both Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a
strong trailing tropical wave will lead to fresh to strong winds N
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico as well as the Caribbean passages
through Mon.

$$
Ramos/Mahoney
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