[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 72.4W at
30/0900 UTC or 60 nm WSW of nthrn tip of Guajira Pnsula Colombia
moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Peak seas to 12 ft within 120 nm northern semicircle from the
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the
central and eastern Caribbean between 66W and 76W. On the
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast through
Friday while the system is approaching Central America and again
on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains
poorly organized with an area of low pressure located over the
far NW Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move slowly
westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern
Mexico later today. Some slow development is still possible, and
it could still become a short-lived tropical depression near the
coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
later today. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days.
For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please
see products issued by your National Weather Service office.
Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 25W,
extending from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 17W and 30W.

A pair of tropical waves are in the western Atlantic, one with
axis along 49W and the other along 54W, each moving at 20 kt and
15 kt, respectively. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
14N between 46W and 56W. These two waves are forecast to merge
late today and move over the Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean
Fri and Sat.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 87W, S of
18N, moving W near 15 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 05N47W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 07N between 26W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information on a low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf.

The main feature in the gulf is the area of low pressure mentioned
above, which has a medium chance of development into a tropical
depression. This system is generating scattered showers and tstms
across the coastal and offshore waters of SW Louisiana and Texas.
Moderate to fresh winds are associated and in the vicinity of this
low. Moderate return flow is across the remainder western half of
the gulf while light to gentle variable winds are E of 90W. Seas
are between 1-3 ft, highest over the NW basin.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail basin-wide during the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 12.0N 72.4W 1009 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving W at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two. The pressure gradient between Two and the
Atlantic ridge to the north continue to support mainly fresh trade
winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the
north-central and portions of the SW basin. Seas in these regions
fluctuate between 7 to 10 ft. The far western Caribbean is under
the influence of gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, Two will move to 12.0N 75.3W this afternoon,
11.5N 79.0W Fri morning, 11.1N 81.9W Fri afternoon, inland to
11.1N 84.6W Sat morning, 11.1N 87.1W Sat afternoon, and 11.5N
89.6W Sun morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves
near 12.8N 95.2W early Mon. A tropical wave with axis near 54W
will merge with a trailing wave late today and move across the
Lesser Antilles along with a surge of winds and waves on Fri. The
wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Sat, and the
central Caribbean on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature covering the subtropical Atlantic waters is a
ridge, which is favoring fair weather. This is supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds S of 26N in the western and central
subtropical basin and fresh to locally strong NE winds off the
coast of NW Africa where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range.
Otherwise, see the tropical waves section.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging is forecast to prevail
through the forecast period supporting return flow in the SW N
Atlantic offshore waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and the passage of both Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a
strong trailing tropical wave will lead to fresh to strong winds N
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico as well as the Caribbean passages
through Mon.

$$
Ramos
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