[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 11.6N 69.0W at
29/2100 UTC or 40 nm S of Curacao moving W at 18 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are within
900 nm N semicircle of the center. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 270 nm of the center in the northern
semicircle. On the forecast track, the system will pass over the
southern Caribbean Sea and near the northern coast of Venezuela
tonight, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thu and over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea later Thu and Fri. The system is
expected to be near or over Nicaragua late Fri. Conditions appear
conducive for development while the disturbance remains over
water, and it is expected to become a tropical storm while moving
westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated
with a 1014 mb area of low pressure located over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas near 26N95W, have
increased since this morning but remain disorganized. A surface
trough extends from this low NE to the Texas-Louisiana border.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 23N
to 30N between 91W and 97W. Fresh winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
present in this area. This system is forecast to move slowly
westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern
Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still possible
and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the
coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas on
Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. Please
see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 22W from 02N to
just NE of the Cabo Verde Islands is moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is along and within 300 nm E of the
wave axis from 02N- 11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W from 02N to
17N is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 44W and 55W.
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-
northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move
over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then
over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 52W from
02N-12N is moving W near 10 kt. As this wave is forecast to
absorbed by the wave to its east Thu, associated convection has
been described in the paragraph above.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 83W from just W
of the Cayman Islands to western Panama is moving W at near 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 78W
and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 10N19W. The ITCZ begins near 08N21W to 07N40W, from
07N44W to 07N50W, and from 08N53W to 10N59W. Aside from the
convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is
along and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 26W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure over the NW Gulf has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within 48 hours. See Special Features section
above for details.

Convection associated with a front over the southern U.S. has
moved inland from the northern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 25N to 29N between 84W and 88W. A surface trough
previously over the Bay of Campeche has dissipated. Gentle winds
and seas of 1-2 ft prevail over the basin, outside of the low
pressure area in the northwest Gulf. Near the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, locally moderate winds are occurring.

For the forecast outside of the northwest Gulf low pressure area,
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two in the S Caribbean. Please see the Tropical
Waves section for details about the tropical wave along 83W.

Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, with
fresh to locally strong trades ongoing over much of the remainder
of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 6 to 8
in the central and SW basin, and 2 to 4 in the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection has moved off the western coasts of
Haiti and Jamaica this afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to 11.8N 71.8W Thu
morning, 12.0N 75.6W Thu afternoon, 11.7N 79.4W Fri morning, 11.4N
82.4W Fri afternoon, then inland to 11.1N 85.1W Sat morning. A
tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic will
likely approach the Lesser Antilles Thu, move into the eastern
Caribbean on Fri, and into the central Caribbean Sun. A surge in
winds and seas are expected with this wave.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on a
tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic that has a low
potential of tropical formation into the weekend.

A surface trough extends from 30N78W to the SE Florida coast. This
trough and associated upper level low are inducing numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection from 24N to 29W between 77W
and 80W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in the vicinity.

A weak upper-level low near 25N66W is causing scattered moderate
convection from 27N to 31N between 62W and 67W. Farther E, a
surface trough over the central Atlantic along 48W N of 22N is
aiding in the formation of scattered moderate convection along and
within 150 nm E of the trough axis. Ridging prevails elsewhere. N
of 24N, gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 40, with seas of 3
to 6 ft. Farther east, a large area of fresh to locally strong NE
winds prevails E to the Africa coast, with the highest winds
funneling through the Canary Islands. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are in
this area of fresh winds. To the S of 24N, fresh trades dominate,
with locally strong winds N of Hispaniola and entering the
adjacent Windward Passage.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters. This will support moderate to fresh
easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of
22N.

$$
Konarik
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