[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 11.5N 68.0W at
29/1800 UTC or 75 nm SE of Curacao moving W at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are within 120 nm
N semicircle of the center. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is within 270 nm of the center in the northern
semicircle. On the forecast track, the system will pass over the
southern Caribbean Sea and near the northern coast of Venezuela
today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thu and over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thu and Fri. The system is
expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Fri night. Conditions
appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains
over water, and it is expected to become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: A 1014 mb low pressure centered off the
coast of southern Texas near 26N95W is along a surface trough that
extends from 29N91W to 22N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from 23N-30N between 91W-97W. These
showers and storms have increased since this morning, but remain
disorganized. Scatterometer and altimeter data from last night
showed fresh winds and seas up to 5 ft associated with this
system. The low is forecast to move slowly westward and approach
the coast of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico by early Thu.
Some slow development is still possible and it could become a
short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns
northwestward and moves inland over Texas on Thu. Regardless of
development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the Texas
coast for the next few days. Please see the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 19/20W from
02N-18N is moving W near 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
along and within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 02N-11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 42/43W from 02N-
17N is moving W near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near
the wave axis from 10N-12.5N. Slow development of the wave is
possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days,
and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward
Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern
Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Please see
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 51W from
02N-12N is moving W near 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from
02N-10N. This wave is forecast to be absorbed by the wave to its
east on Thu.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 82W from the
Cayman Islands to western Panama is moving W near 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 75W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 10N19W. The ITCZ begins near 08N21W to 06N32W to
08N41W, from 07N44W to 07N50W, and from 08N53W to 10N59W. Aside
from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is along and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between
44W-49W. Isolated moderate convection is along and within 180 nm
S of the ITCZ between 26W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure over the W Gulf has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within 48 hours. See above for details.

Enhanced moisture south of a front over the southern U.S. is
inducing scattered moderate to strong convection along the coast
between Pensacola and Biloxi, extending offshore for 90 nm.
Isolated showers and tstorms extend from 25N-29N between 84W-88W.
Farther south, a surface trough extending from 21N91W to 18N94W is
creating scattered showers over the central Bay of Campeche.
Gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail over the basin, outside of
the low pressure area in the western Gulf.

For the forecast outside of the western Gulf low pressure area,
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail during the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two in the SE Caribbean. Please see the Tropical
Waves section for details about the tropical wave along 82W.

Moderate E winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. The latest ASCAT
pass shows fresh winds over the central Caribbean, east of the
tropical wave that is along 82W. Strong trades prevail between the
Lesser Antilles and 70W, except likely 25-35 kt near Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two. Seas are 5-8 ft over the central Caribbean,
8-12 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-3 ft in the NW basin.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to near 12N74W Thu
morning, to near 12N80.5W Fri morning, then inland into Nicaragua
Fri evening, likely as a strong tropical storm. The tropical wave
along 43W will move over the Lesser Antilles Fri, into the
eastern Caribbean Fri night, and into the central Caribbean Sun. A
surge in winds and seas is expected with this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp surface trough extends from 30N78W to South Florida near
25.5N81W. An upper-level low centered near 25.5N81W is helping to
induce scattered to numerous thunderstorms from 24N-29N between
78W-79.5W, between the NW Bahamas and Florida. A recent ASCAT pass
shows fresh SE winds to the southeast of the surface trough,
extending through the northwest Bahamas. An upper-level trough
along 66W, to the north of 22N, is causing scattered moderate
convection from 27N-31N between 62W-67W. Over the central
Atlantic, a surface trough along 47W from 22N-31N is interacting
with an upper-level trough in the area to produce isolated showers
along and within 180 nm east of the surface trough. Ridging
prevails elsewhere. ASCAT shows mainly moderate winds north of 24N
and west of 40W, where seas are 3-6 ft. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds extend well off the coast of Africa, where seas are 6-9
ft. Similar winds and seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic
from the ITCZ to 22N between Africa and 55W. Winds and seas are
higher west of 55W, in the wake of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters. This will support moderate to fresh
easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of
22N.

$$
Hagen
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