[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 11.3N 65.4W at
29/0900 UTC or 170 nm ESE of Curacao moving W at 26 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are
within 180 nm NE semicircle of the center. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 09N to 15N between 61W and 69W.
On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern
Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Conditions appear conducive
for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it
is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across
the southern Caribbean Sea.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly
westward or west- southwestward and approach the coast of Texas
during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is
possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression
near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday.
Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along
portions of the Texas coast later this week. Please see the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis along 17W,
extending from 03N to 17N, and moving W near 15 kt. There is no
deep convection associated with the wave at the current time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 40W,
extending from 02N to 17N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 34W and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 49W,
extending from 02N to 13N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 47W
and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 79W,
extending S of 18N, and moving W at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 15N between 75W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ begins
near 06N22W and continues along 06N34W, then resumes near 07N50W
to 10N59W. For information about convection, see the tropical
waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information about a low pressure over the NW Gulf with medium
chance of development within the next two days.

Aside from the area of low pressure in the NW basin where winds
are mainly gentle to moderate, a generally weak pressure gradient
in the region continue to support light to gentle variable winds
elsewhere. Seas are 2-3 ft basin-wide, except for 3-4 ft seas in
the NW Gulf associated with the invest AL95.

For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge
will continue to dominate the Gulf through the week, supporting
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near the Windward
Islands.

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the west-central basin, near the
Nicaragua coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional weather in the basin. Other than waters near the
Windward Islands, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
are seen over the eastern and central basin. Gentle to moderate NE
trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident for the southwestern
basin. Light to gentle easterly trades and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the northwestern basin.

For the forecast outside the area impacting by Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, a tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic will likely approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu night,
cross the islands on Fri, and move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea late Fri and Fri night. A surge in winds and seas are expected
with this wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the northwest Bahamas is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity.
Another surface trough near 27N45W is causing similar conditions
north of 25N between 43W and 46W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Wave sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

A large dome of 1037 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is
providing gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 22N between 36W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the
south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are found from 08N to 22N between 30W and 52W. Farther west, fresh
to locally strong easterly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident
from 09N to 22N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to
fresh NNE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands north of 14N between the northwest African
coast and 30W. Light to gentle trades and monsoonal winds along
with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N, and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 22N.

$$
Ramos
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