[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 10.9N 62.8W at
29/0300 UTC or 90 nm WNW of Trinidad, and moving WNW at 23 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds of 25 kt or greater
are currently confined to the northern semicircle. Peak seas near
12 ft are up to 180 nm in a semicircle north of the center.
Grenada reported ENE winds of 30 to 35 kt within the last hour.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
between Grenada and Bonaire Islands. On the latest forecast
track, this system will move across the southern Windward Islands
today, then reach the coast of northwestern Venezuela tonight and
northern Colombia on Thu. Conditions remain conducive for
development and it will likely become a tropical storm near the
southern Windward Islands or near the coast of northwestern
Venezuela. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly
westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas
during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is
possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression
near the coast before it moves inland on Wednesday night or
Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast later this week. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and north of the
system to near Lafayette, Louisiana. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the coast of Guinea-Bissau/Guinea from 18N
southward, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 05N to 11N between the coast of Guinea/Sierra Leone
and 21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 17N southward,
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 38W and 44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 13N southward,
and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06N to 10N between 47W and 51W. This wave might gradually
develop later this week.

Another tropical wave is close to Barbados near 59W from 15N
southward into Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 08N to 14N between 54W and
59W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from Jamaica southward
across eastern Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W at
20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present near the Panama-Colombia border and nearby waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Senegal to near 09N21W. Scattered showers are noted from 12N to
17N between the Senegal coast and 21W. Three segments of an ITCZ
extends from 06N21W to 03N35W, 03N39W to 05N46W, and from 07N49W
to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 120 nm
along either side of the first segment. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring south of the second
segment from the Equator to 03N between 42W and Amapa State,
Brazil; and the third segment over Suriname, French Guiana and
adjacent waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information about a low pressure over the north-central Gulf south
of the Texas-Louisiana border.

A mid-level low near the Florida Keys is triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist across
the north-central and northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to
SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge
will continue to dominate the Gulf through the week, supporting
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near the Windward
Islands.

Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the west-central basin, near the
Nicaragua coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional weather in the basin. Other than waters near the
Windward Islands, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
are seen over the eastern and central basin. Gentle to moderate NE
trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident for the southwestern
basin. Light to gentle easterly trades and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the northwestern basin.

For the forecast outside the area impacting by Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, a tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic will likely approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu night,
cross the islands on Fri, and move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea late Fri and Fri night. A surge in winds and seas are expected
with this wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the northwest Bahamas is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity.
Another surface trough near 27N45W is causing similar conditions
north of 25N between 43W and 46W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Wave sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

A large dome of 1037 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is
providing gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 22N between 36W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the
south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are found from 08N to 22N between 30W and 52W. Farther west, fresh
to locally strong easterly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident
from 09N to 22N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to
fresh NNE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found near the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands north of 14N between the northwest African
coast and 30W. Light to gentle trades and monsoonal winds along
with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N, and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 22N.

$$

Chan
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