[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 10.1N 59.5W at
28/2100 UTC or 110 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 21 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds of 25 kt or greater are
currently confined to the northern semicircle. Peak seas are 12
ft within 120 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is within 210 nm W semicircle and 240 nm NE
quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere within 270 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or
near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.
Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm
near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across
the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico, near 97N93W, at 1014 mb, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, mainly N of 25N and W of 90W. Fresh to
locally strong winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in association with
this low. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-
southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next two
days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become
a short- lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves
inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast later this week. The system has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 37W
extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 37W and 44W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along
47W, extending from 02N to 14N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 44W
and 50W. This system is forecast to interact with another
tropical wave over the next several days, and some gradual
development is possible later this week while the overall system
moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt across the central
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation over the next 5 days.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 77W,
S of Jamaica, and moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 17N between 72W and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N24W. The ITCZ continues from 09N24W to 08N33W, from 08N36W
to 08N44W, and from 08N47W to 09N56W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 04N-14N between the coast of Africa and
25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please see the Special Features section above for details. A weak
surface from just NW of the western tip of Cuba to just S of the
western Florida Panhandle is inducing scattered moderate
convection. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 2 ft prevail. Some moderate SE winds have developed this
evening in the far NE Gulf.

For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge
will continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters through
the week supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the Tropical Waves section for
details on the tropical wave along 73W. Fresh to locally strong
trades prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, with
mainly gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are mainly 5 to 7
ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the far SW Caribbean S of 10N, and 1 to 3
ft in the NW Caribbean.

Aside from Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, a tropical wave
located over the central tropical Atlantic will likely approach
the Lesser Antilles by Thu night, cross the islands on Fri, and
move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late Fri and Fri night. A
surge in winds and seas are expected with this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the Tropical Waves section
above for information on a tropical wave in the central Tropical
Atlantic that has low potential for tropical cyclone formation.

An upper-level low is centered just E of the Florida Straits. An
associated surface trough resides over the NW Bahamas. As a
result, scattered moderate convection is noted in the central and
NW Bahamas. An upper-level trough then extends NE from the NW
Bahamas to Bermuda, and scattered moderate convection in
association with it stretches from 27N to 31N between 67W and 72W.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of broad
ridging, anchored by 1035 mb high pressure along 40N to the west
of the Azores. S of 21N, fresh trades prevail. Strong NE winds are
occurring N of the Cabo Verde Islands, extending N and E through
the Canary Islands and off the Moroccan coast. Elsewhere north of
21N, mainly moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8 ft or greater from
08N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate
E to SE winds N of 22N.

$$
Konarik
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