[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 10.0N 58.2W at
28/1800 UTC or 185 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 20 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds of 25 kt or greater are
currently confined to the northern semicircle. Peak seas are 12 ft
within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is within 210 nm W semicircle and 240
nm NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
elsewhere within 270 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or
near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.
Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm
near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across
the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico: A 1014 mb low pressure is centered in the NW Gulf
of Mexico near 27N92.5W. A surface trough extends through the low
from 28N95W to 26N90W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are
associated with this system over the northwest Gulf, north of 25N
and west of 90W. Fresh winds and 3-5 ft seas are associated with
the low pressure. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next
two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland. The system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 34W
extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along and within 180 nm W of the wave axis
from 05N to 14N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along
44/45W, extending from 02N to 14N, and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-06N
between 41.5W-49W and from 07.5N-11N between 43W-50W. This system
is forecast to interact with the tropical wave to its east over
the next several days, and there is a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation over the next 5 days while the overall system
moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 73W,
S of 17N, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 180 nm east of the wave axis and
within 240 nm west of the wave axis from 11N-20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N24W. The ITCZ continues from 09N24W to 08N32W, from 08N35W
to 08N43W, and from 08N46W to 09N55W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 04N-15N between the coast of Africa and
20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ
between 38W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Please see the Special Features section above for details. A weak
surface trough over the northeast Gulf is inducing isolated
showers and tstorms there. Outside of the northwestern Gulf, light
to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge
will continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters through
the week supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the Tropical Waves section for
details on the tropical wave along 73W. In addition to the
convection described above, the east Pacific monsoon trough is
inducing isolated to scattered moderate convection from 09N-16N
between 76W-84.5W. Fresh trades prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea with gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas
are 5-7 ft east of 77W across the eastern and central Caribbean,
2-4 ft in the SW basin and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move westward across the
southern Caribbean, near the ABC Islands and the coast of
Venezuela Wed night, possibly as a tropical storm. Two is
currently forecast to be a hurricane by the time it approaches the
coast of Central America early Sat. Seas are forecast to build to
12 ft over the next couple of days over the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

An upper-level low is centered near 23N79W near the Bahamas and
Cuba. A surface trough is located over the Bahamas, extending from
22N77W to 27N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
23N-27N between 73W-78W. An upper-level trough extends
northeastward from the upper-level low, which is inducing
additional rainshowers from 27N-31N between 67W-72W. The remainder
of the Atlantic is under the influence of broad ridging, anchored
by 1035 mb high pressure along 40N to the west of the Azores. The
latest ASCAT satellite data shows fresh trades from the ITCZ to
22N, except strong between 47W-62W. Winds peak around 35 kt near
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Near the coast of Morocco, winds
are likely currently N strong to near gale force. Elsewhere north
of 22N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. The only exception is
east of the Bahamas to north of Puerto Rico, where fresh trades
are observed. Areas currently experiencing seas in excess of 8 ft
include 08N-20N between the Lesser Antilles and 40W, and also off
the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, seas are below 8 ft at this time.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting
fresh easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE
winds N of 22N. Moderate swell from enhanced easterly flow to the
north of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two may affect waters north of
Puerto Rico through Wed.

$$
Hagen
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