[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272218
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The tropical wave located well ESE of the southern Windward
Islands and associated low pressure have become better organized
this afternoon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 8.6N 50.9W at
27/2100 UTC or 630 nm E of Trinidad moving WNW at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 45W
and 55W. Peak seas are near 11 ft. The poorly-defined center of
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to continue moving W to
WNW fairly quickly over the next several days. The environment
appears favorable for development, and a tropical storm will
likely form of this system before it reaches the southern Windward
Islands. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions
of the southern Windward Islands Tue night and Wed. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a
persisting low pressure area over Algeria is inducing gale force
N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir.
These gales are expected to continue through 28/03 UTC.
Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the
latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 29W,
extending from the equator to 17N, and moving W at around 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
from 04N-10N between 23W-32W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 40W,
extending from 01N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N between 38W-44W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis along 69W,
south of 17N and moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 17N between 60W-70W including N
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W to 12N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N19W to 07N26W,
continues from 06N29W to 08N38W, then from 08N40W to 09N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N east of 18W.
See the tropical waves section for information about additional
convective activity.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak low pressure trough extends from the central Louisiana
coast S to near 27N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 27N between 89W and 93W. A weak pressure gradient across
the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds and
seas in the 1-2 ft range.

For the forecast, the trough will drift westward over the next
few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form from the remnants
of the trough across the north-central Gulf tonight and drift west
and inland through Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate
the Gulf waters through the middle of the week, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two.

A tropical wave continues to generate showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea. See
the Tropical Waves section for details. A weak pressure gradient
between the Bermuda High well north of the area and a 1011 mb
Colombian low hear 10N78W is forcing moderate to fresh E trades in
the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate E trades
in the western Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central and
eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. The eastern
end of the Pacific's monsoon trough extends from Central America
at 10N83W to Colombia at 10N78W and is producing scattered
moderate convection south of 12N between 75W-80W.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean will continue through today as the Atlantic ridge
remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate trades will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and on a Gale Warning off the coast
of Morocco.


The subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb Bermuda High
near 40N42W and an Azores High near 38N21W. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures along the ITCZ
results in fresh to locally strong E trades from 10N-20N between
45W- 60W as well as north of 20N east of 20W with seas 7-10 ft.
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. An upper-
level trough just east of the Florida peninsula is inducing a
surface trough from 22N72W to 26N68W along with scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection from 21N-26N between 68W-77W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will drift westward and
weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure
will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 44N. A
strong tropical wave will reach near 60W by late Tue, possibly as
a tropical cyclone, then move quickly through the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Wed night, and the central Caribbean through
Thu evening. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this
wave as it moves W across the region.

$$
Konarik
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