[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Wave: A tropical wave is located about 765 NM east-
southeast of the southern Windward Islands with a weak 1009 mb
low near 08N49W. It is producing scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection from 06N-11N between 45W-55W. Peak winds are
near 25 kt and seas up to 10 ft. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days before the system
reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday
through Friday. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of
this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required for portions of these areas later today. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the
Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a
persisting low pressure area over Algeria is inducing gale force
N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir.
These gales are expected to continue through 28/03 UTC.
Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the
latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 25W,
extending from the equator to 17N, and moving W at around 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
from 04N-10N between 23W-31W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 38W,
extending from 01N to 16N and moving W around 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N between 38W-43W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis along 65W,
south of 17N and moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is generating
isolated moderate convection south of 17N between 60W-70W
including N Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N19W to 07N24W,
continues from 06N27W to 08N36W, then from 08N39W to 09N48W, and
finally from 08N51W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate and isolated
convection is noted from 05N-08N east of 18W. See the tropical
waves section for information about additional convective
activity.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from the coast of Louisiana near 30N90W
southeastward to 27N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of 27N between 89W and 93W. A weak pressure gradient
across the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable
winds and seas in the 1-2 ft range.

For the forecast, the weak surface trough will drift westward
over the next few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form
from the remnants of the trough across the north-central Gulf
tonight and drift west and inland through Wed. Elsewhere, a weak
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the middle
of the week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave continues to generate showers and tstorms with
gusty winds across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea. See
the Tropical Waves section for details. A weak pressure gradient
between the Bermuda High well north of the area and a 1011 mb
Colombian low hear 10N78W is forcing moderate to fresh E trades
in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate E
trades in the western Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central
and eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean. The
eastern end of the Pacific's monsoon trough extends from Central
America at 10N83W to Colombia at 10N78W and is producing
scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 75W-80W.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean will continue through today as the Atlantic ridge
remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will prevail. A strong
tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic
waters early Tue, possibly as a tropical cyclone, and move
quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea through Wed night,
through the central Caribbean Thu and across the western
Caribbean late Thu through Fri. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days before the system
reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday
through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above
for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the
gale near the coast of Morocco.

The subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb Bermuda High
near 40N42W and an Azores High near 38N21W. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures along the ITCZ
results in fresh to strong E trades from 10N-20N between 45W-60W
as well as north of 20N east of 20W with seas 7-10 ft. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. An upper-level
trough just east of the Florida peninsula is inducing a surface
trough from 22N72W to 26N68W along with scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection from 21N-26N between 71W-77W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough will drift westward and
weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high
pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near
44N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W by late Tue,
possibly as a tropical cyclone, then move quickly through the
eastern Caribbean Sea through Wed night, and the central
Caribbean through Thu evening. Expect a broad surge of winds and
seas with this wave as it moves W across the region.

$$
Landsea/Rivera
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