[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N-16N. A 1009
mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 08N42W. The
disturbance is moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the low in
the NE, NW and SW quadrants. Little to no convection is elsewhere
along the wave axis. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are
likely occurring near and to the north of the disturbance.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development.
The chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the
next 48 hours, but high over the next 5 days. This system is
forecast to approach the Windward Islands on Tue, then move across
the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wed and Thu on a westward
track. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward
Islands Tue night into Wed morning, and interests there should
monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong Azores High combined with
low pressure over northwestern Africa is inducing gale force N
winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir. These
gales are expected to continue through Mon. Seas will likely be 10
to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html
for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over west Africa has been added to the analysis
along 14/15W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave
should emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm W of
the wave axis and within 150 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-10N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from 02N
to 14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06.5N-09N between 26.5W-33W and from 02N-05N between
23W-27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of
17N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis
from 07N to 16N, and is currently affecting the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands. Enhanced rainfall will continue across
the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through
tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 08N26W, from 07N29W
to 08N40W, and from 08N44W to 10N56W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 47W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low offshore SW Florida
near 25.5N82W to near Bay St. Louis, MS. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is near the trough and over the waters offshore
the western Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana, from the
coastline to beyond 120 nm offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are
elsewhere over the NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak mid to upper-level
trough is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the SW Gulf
of Mexico from 18N to 25N between 94.5W and 97W. A high pressure
ridge extends from near Galveston, TX to the Straits of Florida
near 24N84W, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure near 28N92W.
Mostly gentle wind speeds prevail across the basin, based on the
latest buoy observations. Altimeter passes from earlier this
morning show seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough over the NE
Gulf will drift westward over the next few days. This system has a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf by mid-
week before it moves inland over Texas and NE Mexico. Pulsing
scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough on
its westward journey across the northern Gulf. The aforementioned
surface ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters into
early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is currently producing showers and tstorms across
portions of the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section
for details. The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon
trough is along 10/11N in the SW Caribbean and is inducing
numerous moderate scattered strong convection south of 12N and
west of 75.5W. Mid to upper-level ridging is over the NW
Caribbean, leading to somewhat drier weather there. However,
afternoon heating will likely lead to the development of scattered
thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles this afternoon. A recent
ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh trades over the south-
central Caribbean, with moderate trades elsewhere over the eastern
and central basin. Gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean.
Altimeter data from last night showed seas of 4 to 6 ft across
most of the open Caribbean waters, and seas have not changed much
since that time. Seas of 1-3 ft are found in the gentle wind area
of the NW basin.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night, possibly as a tropical
cyclone. This system will move westward through the eastern
Caribbean Wed and the central Caribbean Thu. Expect squalls with
very gusty winds as well as rough seas across the Caribbean Sea
as this system passes through.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above
for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the
gale near the coast of Morocco.

A surface trough extends from South Florida to 31N75W. Another
surface trough extends from 25N73.5W to 29N72W to 30.5N68W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from 31N71W to the NW Bahamas. A
smaller upper-level low is located near 27N60W. These features are
producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from
23N to 29N between 59W and 79W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 59W and 80W. High
pressure ridging dominates the eastern half of the Atlantic. The
latest ASCAT data shows mostly moderate wind speeds across the
subtropical Atlantic, north of 24N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this
area. Fresh to strong NE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas prevail from
the ITCZ to 22N, east of 62W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough extending from near 31N75W
southwestward to 27N80W will drift westward during the next few
days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered
across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will
reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a tropical cyclone,
then move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night, and
the central Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Expect a broad surge of
winds and seas with this wave as it moves W across the region.

$$
Hagen
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