[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261211
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. Its
axis is along 40W/41W south of 16N. It is moving westward at
15 kt. A small cyclonic circulation is along the wave axis near
08N41W. Convection of the numerous moderate to strong type
increased during the overnight hours. It is noted within 180 nm
SW and 150 nm NW of the small cyclonic circulation. Latest
satellite imagery also shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
that crosses the wave axis within 30 nm of a line from 09N36W to
10N39W and to 11N41W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds
along with seas of 8-10 ft are occurring from 11N to 18N and
between 42W-55W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of this week. This system is
forecast to continue on a westward track over the tropical
Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tue then move across
the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wed and Thu. Interests in the
Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. The
chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the next 48
hours, but high over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds
are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from
02N to 05N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Latest satellite
imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
300 nm east of the wave from 04N to 10N, and within 180 nm west of
the wave from 06N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of
16N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm west of the wave from 09N to 13N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 300 nm east of the
wave from 10N to 14N. Enhanced rainfall is expected across the
Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands today through
tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W and continues southwestward to 09N22W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 08N25W, then from 07N28W to 09N34W to 10N39W, and
from 08N43W to 09N50W to 10N55W. Aside from convection associated
with the tropical waves, clusters of moderate to isolated strong
convection are noted along the west coast of Africa from Liberia
all the way to southern Senegal, likely associated with the next
tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
north of the ITCZ between 45W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low that is inland
central Mississippi southeastward to the Alabama coast near
Mobile, and continues southeastward to inland southwest Florida.
An overnight ASCAT data pass captured a northeast to east wind
shift of gentle speeds across the trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are confined to the NE and north-central Gulf
waters. The rest of the Gulf region is under the influence of a
1015 mb high pressure analyzed 25N85W. Its associated gradient is
allowing for light to gentle winds. Seas are 2 to 3 ft throughout

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will drift
westward over the next few days with possible slow development.
Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends
into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to
northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with low-
level convergence supports clusters of mainly moderate convection
over the southwestern Caribbean, including the water adjacent to
western Venezuela, Costa Rica and Panama. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are over some sections of western Haiti and over
few locations of the eastern and southern sections of the
Dominican Republic.

Overnight ASCAT data passes depict moderate to locally fresh
trades across the central Caribbean, and mainly moderate winds
elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the northwest
part of the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the
northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean will become mainly fresh winds this
morning and through early Mon as the Atlantic ridge remains
centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected
to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, possibly as a
tropical cyclone, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed
and Wed night and reach the central Caribbean Thu. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this wave,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to
middle part of the upcoming week as it moves generally westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward across the
tropical Atlantic. One of them has the potential for tropical
cyclone formation as described above under Special Features.
Please see the Tropical Waves section details on the other
two tropical waves.

A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N70W to 30N71W, where
it becomes a trough to 29N73W and to 26N75W. Another trough
extends from near 31N75W southwestward to inland South Florida,
and continues west-northwestward into the NE Gulf of Mexico.
An overnight ASCAT data pass showed mainly moderate northeast
to east winds northwest of the stationary front and trough.
Mainly light and variable winds are north of about 24N and west of
67W. A rather vigorous upper-level trough is producing an area of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 25N to 29N
between 63W-70W. A third trough is analyzed along 61W from 29N to
33N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are see within 120 nm
east of this trough, and also from 24N to 29N between 58W-62W. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are dominated by a
strong 1034 mb high pressure center analyzed well north of the
area near 40N43W. A recent altimeter data pass detected seas
peaking to 8-9 ft outside the areas impacted by the Special
Features tropical wave from 16N to 20N between and 46W-50W. Over
the eastern Atlantic, moderate trades generally continue north of
23N with 5-6 ft seas. Fresh trades are present from the ITCZ to
23N, where seas are 6-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough that extends from
near 31N75W to South Florida will drift westward during the
next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical
wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a
tropical cyclone, then move through the eastern Caribbean Sea
Wed and Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu night.
Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves
across the region.

$$
Aguirre/Hagen
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