[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152226
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean to the southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands along 28W, from 15N southward, moving W at 15
to 20 kt. Scattered showers are possible within 300 nm of the
tropical wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 59W/60W, from 14N
southward to near Barbados and continuing to over Guyana, moving W
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N to 18N between 53W and 58W, with additional,
similar activity over Guyana and eastern Venezuela.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 77W/78W, from near
Jamaica southward to near the border of Panama and Colombia,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
cover a large area over the south-central and SW Caribbean Sea,
from 10N to 19N between 72W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough axis extends across the coast of Africa near the
Border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau from 11N15W to 11N20W to
05N32W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N32W to 02N40W to just
northeast of the coast of Brazil near 03N49W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is present near and within 180 nm
of the coasts of Sierra-Leone, Liberia, and Cote d'Ivoire.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 18W
and 23W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 10N between 46W and 51W.

The eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean waters, including the coast of Honduras
south to Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough runs from near New Orleans to across Apalachee
Bay, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident near New Orleans, Louisiana. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high
pressure area southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana near 28N91W is
in control of the majority of the Gulf. Light to gentle N-NE winds
and 1-3 ft seas are in the NE and north-central Gulf, with
moderate NE-E winds and 2-3 ft seas in the central and southeast
Gulf. Moderate to fresh E-SE return flow is in the SW Gulf and Bay
of Campeche, as well as in the remainder of the western Gulf,
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Veracruz,
Mexico.

For the forecast, a disturbance currently over Nicaragua is
forecast to move slowly northwest and emerge over the Gulf of
Honduras Fri where some development is possible. This system is
forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche by early next week where
some development is also possible. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over southeastern Mexico during
the weekend. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the
basin providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except
off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where
a thermal trough will support fresh to locally strong E to NE
winds at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Basin.

The Atlantic ridge to the north continues to sustain a trade-wind
regime for the entire basin, except the southwestern portion.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly trades and 4-7 ft
seas prevail across the eastern, central and west-central basin.
Gentle to moderate ENE trades and seas at 3-5 ft are evident for
the northwestern basin. Disorganized 1009 mb low pressure is
located inland over eastern Nicaragua with associated convection
described above. Winds are locally fresh to strong with seas to 8
ft from 12N to 14N between 80W and the coast of Nicaragua.
Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 3-5 ft exist for
the remainder of the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland over
eastern Nicaragua accompanied by showers and thunderstorms could
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras Fri where some development could
be possible. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern
Mexico through the weekend. Otherwise, surface ridging NNE of the
area will prevail through the forecast period, supporting mainly
fresh trade winds in the central and western basin and mainly
moderate winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds will develop at
night over the weekend in the south-central Caribbean and from Thu
night through Fri night in the Gulf of Honduras associated with
the disturbance mentioned above.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough near 29N72W is coupling with convergent
southerly winds to generate isolated moderate convection
northeast of the Bahamas to near Bermuda. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A surface trough is analyzed over the western Bahamas to the
north-central coast of Cuba with isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible near the trough axis. A cold front is just
north of the area from 31N76W to near Little River, South
Carolina. Otherwise, a large dome of 1025 mb high pressure is
centered just north of the area near 32.5N38W. This high dominates
much of the Atlantic Basin with a ridge extending west-southwest
to the northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and
3-5 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds
are north of 29N between 55W and 74W, locally strong along 31N,
near the cold front. Seas are 4-7 ft across that area. Moderate to
fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft, dominate the waters
south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging across the area
will weaken tonight as the tail of a cold front moves across the
offshore waters between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. The
front is forecast to extend from 30N62W to 28N72W by Thu
afternoon, and move east of the area by late Fri morning. Fresh to
strong SW to W winds will accompany this front, affecting the
offshore waters N of 27N between 55W and 70W. A second, but
weaker front will move across the same region Sat night into Mon
with mainly moderate SW to W winds ahead of it. Surface ridging
will build again afterwards.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net