[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 27W from 14N southward, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt.
Scattered showers are seen from 05N to 09N between 26W and 29W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near 59W
from 13N southward into Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Windward Islands,
over northeastern Venezuela and northern Guyana.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from Jamaica southward into
western Colombia, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found across the south-central
Caribbean Sea, north of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across the coast of Guinea-Bissau through
10N23W to 05N32W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south
of the Cabo Verde Islands from 07N to 14N between the central
African coast and 24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present near the coast of Liberia and Ivory Coast.
Farther southwest, an ITCZ extends from 03N32W to north of Belem,
Brazil near 03N48W. Scattered showers are found up to 90 nm along
either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean waters, including the coast of Honduras and
Nicaragua.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough runs from near New Orleans to Tallahassee,
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident
near New Orleans. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high pressure southeast of
New Orleans is in control much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate
NNE to E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are dominating the eastern
Gulf. Moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist over the
northwestern and west-central Gulf. Fresh to strong ESE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the high will persist over the Gulf through
Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds
across the western Gulf through today. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Winds and seas will
diminish on Thu as the high weakens. Looking ahead, winds and
seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by the weekend as a
disturbance approaches from the northwestern Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Basin.

The Atlantic ridge to the north continues to sustain a trade-wind
regime for the entire basin, except the southwestern portion.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly trades and 4 to 7
ft seas prevail across the eastern, central and west-central
basin. Gentle to moderate ENE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are
evident for the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist for the southwestern basin.

For the forecast, a small area of low pressure located along the
monsoon trough near the coast of Nicaragua will continue to
generate disorganized showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. This low and associated weather should drift NW along
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras later this week. Some slow
development of this system is still possible if it moves over
waters again. Regardless of development, the low could produce
periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras through late this week. Otherwise, the Atlantic
ridge will prevail through the forecast period, supporting mainly
fresh trade winds in the central and western basin. Locally
strong winds will develop at night over the weekend in the south-
central Caribbean and from Thu night through Fri night in the Gulf
of Honduras associated with the disturbance mentioned above.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough near 29N72W is coupling with convergent
southerly winds to generate scattered moderate convection
northeast of the Bahamas, north of 28N between 72W and 75W.
Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers from 06N to
08N between 34W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

A large dome of 1026 mb high near 31N41W dominates much of the
Atlantic Basin with light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north
of 25N between 30W and 60W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
and seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen from the Bahamas northward between
60W and the Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades
with 4 to 6 ft seas are present near the Canary Islands north of
18N between the northwest African coast and 30W, and also from 12N
to 18N between 24W and 30W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE
to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from 07N to 25N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal
winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge related to the
1026 mb high will remain along 26N through tonight. A cold front
will enter the northern waters tonight, extending from 31N59W to
30N74W early Thu, and weakening by early Fri from 28N55W to
27N60W. The front will bring fresh to strong winds to areas east
of 68W and north of 28N. The ridge will build again along 25N by
late Fri. A weak cold front should move through the area late in
the weekend.

$$

Chan
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