[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 27W, from 13N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. This was relocated westward from
the earlier position. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N
to 08N between 24W and 28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 47W, from 07N to
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The Saharan Air Layer is currently
inhibiting convective activity. This tropical wave is currently
embedded within a Potential Vorticity Streamer (PVS). A PVS is an
elongated strip of air transported southward from the
midlatitudes which possesses a higher potential vorticity than
the surrounding environment. A PVS can interact with tropical
waves in the subtropics. These interactions may increase the
sharpness of the tropical wave axis, dictate the forward motion of
the tropical wave, and affect convection associated with the
tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 69W, from 14N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The position is based in part
on wind shifts noted in sounding data from Santo Domingo and San
Juan, as well as a prominent easterly wind surge noted on visible
satellite imagery. Fairly dry Saharan air follows the wave, but a
few showers and thunderstorms followed the wave axis across the
Mona Passage earlier this morning, and isolated thunderstorms are
currently active near 15N67W.

A tropical wave just exited the SW Caribbean and is now
positioned along 84W, from 16N southward, moving W at 5 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by
the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, continues
across the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 15N
between 75W inland over Colombia and 84W along the coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. No showers or thunderstorms are noted
other than already described above in the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to near
New Orleans, Louisiana. A few showers and thunderstorms are active
over the east central Gulf, supported by divergent flow aloft on
the southeast side of an upper trough digging from the Carolina
coast to the northeast Gulf. Farther south, a surface ridge
extends from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast. This
pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate S to SW breezes
and slight seas across the basin.

For the forecast,

At 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary was analyzed in the NW Gulf from
28N85W to 27N86W to 27N88W, leading an area of scattered moderate
convection the is observed on satellite from 26N to 28N between
85W and 88W. The boundary and convection are moving southward at
around 30 kt. This convection has a history of fresh to strong
winds, with higher gusts, according to observations from earlier
this morning. Elsewhere in the Gulf, weak ridging extending from
the subtropical Azores high supports light to gentle anticyclonic
flow across the Gulf with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by
early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas
by late Mon over the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish
thereafter into mid week as the ridge weakens.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient between the extension of the Azores
High and the East Pacific monsoon trough in the southwest
Caribbean currently supports fresh to strong trades across the
south- central and southwest Caribbean, with strongest winds near
the coast of Colombia. Seas are currently 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in
the Caribbean, mainly moderate trades are in force with 4-6 ft
seas. Please see the Tropical Waves section for a description of
convection in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist north of the
area from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf through the
middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the
southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds pulsing along with occasionally rough seas into early next
week between these features over mainly the south-central
Caribbean. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the western
Caribbean of Honduras by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores high centered north of the discussion area continues to
dominate the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Gentle to
moderate SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted west of surface
ridge, north of the Bahamas. Elsewhere north of 20N, light to
gentle anticyclonic flow persists across the basin with 3-5 ft
seas, except fresh N winds and 4-6 ft seas east of 35W. South of
20N and west of 35W, trades are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft
seas, locally 8 ft in the strongest winds. South of 20N and east
of 35W, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. A
surface trough is analyzed in the W Atlantic from 29N62W to
24N63W, with scattered showers noted in the vicinity of the trough
axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from
the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the
north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. This will
support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for
fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward
passage. The ridge will slightly weaken Wed as the tail of a cold
front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda.


$$
Christensen
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