[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 22W, from 13N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 07N between 22W and 25W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 40W, from 07N to
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The Saharan Air Layer is currently
inhibiting convective activity. This tropical wave is currently
embedded within a Potential Vorticity Streamer (PVS). A PVS is an
elongated strip of air transported southward from the
midlatitudes which possesses a higher potential vorticity than
the surrounding environment. A PVS can interact with tropical
waves in the subtropics. These interactions may increase the
sharpness of the tropical wave axis, dictate the forward motion of
the tropical wave, and affect convection associated with the
tropical wave.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 63W, from 14N
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers associated
with the wave are affecting the SE Caribbean, E Venezuela, and
the Windward Islands.

A tropical wave just exited the SW Caribbean and is now positioned
along 83.5W, from 16N southward, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the
extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted across the
SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 15N between 75W
inland over Colombia and 84W along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra
Leone near 11N15W to 07N21W. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N to 11N east of 20W. Segments of the ITCZ are from 05N24W to
07N35W and from 38W at the equator to the coast of Brazil near
01N50W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, an outflow boundary was analyzed in the NW Gulf from
28N85W to 27N86W to 27N88W, leading an area of scattered moderate
convection the is observed on satellite from 26N to 28N between
85W and 88W. The boundary and convection are moving southward at
around 30 kt. This convection has a history of fresh to strong
winds, with higher gusts, according to observations from earlier
this morning. Elsewhere in the Gulf, weak ridging extending from
the subtropical Azores high supports light to gentle anticyclonic
flow across the Gulf with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by
early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas
by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient between the extension of the Azores
High and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in the SW Caribbean
currently supports fresh to strong trades across the south-central
and SW Caribbean, with strongest winds near the coast of Colombia.
Seas are currently 6-8 ft, and are expected to build to 8-10 ft
over the next couple of days as strong trades continue. Elsewhere
in the Caribbean, mainly moderate trades are in force with 4-6 ft
seas. Please see the Tropical Waves section for a description of
convection in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist north of the
area from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf. Farther
south, the monsoon trough will persist across the far southwest
Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse along with
occasionally rough seas into early next week between these
features over mainly the south-central Caribbean, and will include
the Gulf of Honduras by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores high centered north of the discussion area continues to
dominate the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. North of
20N, light to gentle anticyclonic flow persists across the basin
with 3-6 ft seas. South of 20N and west of 45W, trades are
moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft in the strongest
winds. South of 20N and east of 45W, NE winds are gentle to
moderate with 4-6 ft seas. A surface trough is analyzed in the W
Atlantic from 29N62W to 24N63W, with scattered showers noted in
the vicinity of the trough axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from
the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the
north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. This will
support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for
fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward
passage. The ridge will slightly weaken on Wed night as the tail
of a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida
and Bermuda.

$$
Mahoney
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