[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic along 17W, from 03N to 15N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
10N between 16W and 20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 35W, from 05N to
21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer is
currently suppressing convection with this tropical wave.

A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is along 56W,
from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 54W and 59W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 73W, from 15N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is associated with this wave
at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 06N17W. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the Monsoon Trough is from 02N to 07N east of 14W. Segments of the
ITCZ are from 07N26W to 07N33W and from 07N41W to the coast of
Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the ITCZ is from 01N to 08N between 40W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is along the northeast Gulf
Coast from 30N82W across northern Florida to 29N89W near SE
Louisiana. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between
the Florida Coast and 90W. Frequent lightning is occurring with
this convection per the latest data. A weak surface trough is in
the central Bay of Campeche. Across the basin, a diffuse pressure
gradient on the periphery of the subtropical Atlantic high
supports light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Seas are 2-4 ft
across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by
early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas
by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...gentle to moderate

Fresh trades have been detected by the scatterometer in the
southwest Caribbean, with seas of 6-8 ft. A segment of the East
Pacific Monsoon Trough extends from the border of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica to the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 14N west of
78W. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades are
evident in the latest observations and scatterometer data. Seas
are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will persist north of the area
from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf. Farther south,
the monsoon trough will persist across the far southwest
Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse along with
occasionally rough seas into early next week between these
features over mainly the south-central Caribbean, and at times the
Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 24N61W. Scattered showers
are evident near the southwestern terminus of the trough. The
tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Azores high, centered north
of the discussion area. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds is
noted across the basin north of 20N, with moderate to locally
fresh anticyclonic winds south of 20N. N of 20N and E of 20W, near
the coast of Africa, a tighter pressure gradient is supporting
fresh to locally strong NE winds. N of 20N and W of 55W, seas are
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft peaking locally to 8 ft in the
strongest winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending along 20N
through the Bahamas will lift north through today, and then reach
from the north-central Atlantic to the northern Bahamas through
early next week.

$$
Mahoney
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