[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N
with axis along 15W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 08W and 20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to
16N with axis along 35W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Microwave satellite
imagery show dry air in the wave environment, which is hindering
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is SE of the Windward Islands extending from 02N
to 15N with axis along 55W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean, S of 15N with axis along 71W,
moving W at 20 kt. There is no deep convection associated with
this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 11N24W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N25W to 05N37W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 00N to 10N between 38W and 50W. For more
information about convection, see the tropical waves section
above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the Gulf of Mexico providing
gentle to moderate S to SE winds, except for SW to W winds of the
same speed in the far NE basin. Seas are between 1-3 ft across
the region. Otherwise, middle to upper level diffluent flow over
the NE gulf is supporting scattered showers and tstms forecast to
continue through Sat.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge extending from the Straits
of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf
by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and
seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of a trade-wind pattern and Saharan dust is
sustaining fair conditions across much of the Carribbean Basin.
Fresh to strong ENE trades with 7 to 8 ft seas are present over
the south-central and portions of the SW basin. Moderate to fresh
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the remainder eastern and
central Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate E to SE winds are in the
Gulf of Honduras while light to gentle winds are elsewhere in the
NW basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist north of the area from the
western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf. Farther south, the
monsoon trough will persist across the far southwest Caribbean.
Fresh to strong E winds will pulse along with occasionally rough
seas into early next week between these features over mainly the
south-central Caribbean, and at times the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlatic is under the influence of the Azores high,
which is supporting getle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft
across the central and western portions of the basin. Over the far
eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient due to lower
pressure over NW Africa, supports fresh to locally strong NE winds
from 19N to 30N and E of 20W with seas in the 7-8 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending along roughly 20N
through the Bahamas will lift north through late today, and then
reach from the north-central Atlantic to the northern Bahamas
through early next week.

$$
Ramos
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