[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N
with axis along 15W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 08W and 20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N to
16N with axis along 35W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Microwave satellite
imagery show dry air in the wave environment, which is hindering
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is SE of the Windward Islands extending from 02N
to 15N with axis along 55W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean, S of 15N with axis along 71W,
moving W at 20 kt. There is no deep convection associated with
this wave at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 11N24W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N25W to 05N37W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 00N to 10N between 38W and 50W. For more
information about convection, see the tropical waves section
above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is across the Gulf of Mexico providing
gentle to moderate S to SE winds, except for SW to W winds of the
same speed in the far NE basin. Seas are between 1-3 ft across
the region. Otherwise, middle to upper level diffluent flow over
the NE gulf is supporting scattered showers and tstms forecast to
continue through Sat.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge extending from the Straits
of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf
by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and
seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of a trade-wind pattern and Saharan dust is
sustaining fair conditions across much of the Carribbean Basin,
except the southwestern basin; refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for more information. Fresh to strong ENE trades with 7
to 9 ft seas are present over the south-central basin, north of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft
dominate the north-central basin. Fresh to strong ESE trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate ENE to SE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist north of the area from the
western Atlantic to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther
south, the monsoon trough will persist across the far southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Between these two features, fresh to strong E
winds will pulse along with occasionally rough seas into early
next week; mainly for the south-central Caribbean, and at times
the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches northeastward from a low north of
the southeastern Bahamas near 26N72W to beyond 31N at 50W.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are evident south of
Bermuda north of 28N between 64W and 68W. Farther east, a surface
trough meanders southwestward from a 1022 mb low near 33N49W
across 26N54W to 21N63W. Similar weather is occurring up to 100 nm
along either side of this feature. Another upper-level trough near
17N35W is triggering scattered moderated convection northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands from 17N to 21N between 28W and 33W. To the
southwest, convergent trade winds are creating scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 06N to 11N between 43W and 50W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and 5 to 7
ft seas in longer-period northerly swell, north of 24N between 22W
and Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found from the
Equator to 24N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles/South America
coast. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident near the Canary Islands north of 20N
between the northwest African coast and 22W. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending along
roughly 25N through the central Bahamas will lift north through
late Fri, and then reach from the north-central Atlantic to the
northern Bahamas through early next week.

$$
Ramos
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