[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 17N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 05N to 09N between 28W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 13N southward
across French Guiana to northeast Brazil, and moving westward at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N
between 50W and 59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward
across northwestern Venezuela into eastern Colombia, and is
moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring over eastern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Gambia to south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 10N24W. Numerous
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of the
trough from 03N to 10N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and
18W. An ITCZ extends southwestward from 06N32W across 04N40W to
northeast of Belem, Brazil near EQ48W. Scattered moderate
convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, including eastern Panama and
northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the Bay of Campeche. An upper-level low between western Cuba
and the Florida Keys is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. A
frontal boundary just north of the Louisiana-Mississippi-Florida
Panhandle coastline is producing similar conditions near New
Orleans, Pensacola and adjacent waters. A surface ridge extends
westward from southern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. It
is supporting gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with 1 to 3 ft
seas for much of the Gulf, except moderate to fresh ENE winds and
seas at 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will shift into the
northeastern Gulf by early next week. This will cause a slight
increase in winds and seas by late Mon over the western Gulf,
including off the Yucatan Peninsula coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of a trade-wind pattern and Saharan dust is
sustaining fair conditions across much of the Carribbean Basin,
except the southwestern basin; refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for more information. Fresh to strong ENE trades with 7
to 9 ft seas are present over the south-central basin, north of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft
dominate the north-central basin. Fresh to strong ESE trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate ENE to SE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist north of the area from the
western Atlantic to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Farther
south, the monsoon trough will persist across the far southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Between these two features, fresh to strong E
winds will pulse along with occasionally rough seas into early
next week; mainly for the south-central Caribbean, and at times
the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches northeastward from a low north of
the southeastern Bahamas near 26N72W to beyond 31N at 50W.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are evident south of
Bermuda north of 28N between 64W and 68W. Farther east, a surface
trough meanders southwestward from a 1022 mb low near 33N49W
across 26N54W to 21N63W. Similar weather is occurring up to 100 nm
along either side of this feature. Another upper-level trough near
17N35W is triggering scattered moderated convection northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands from 17N to 21N between 28W and 33W. To the
southwest, convergent trade winds are creating scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 06N to 11N between 43W and 50W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and 5 to 7
ft seas in longer-period northerly swell, north of 24N between 22W
and Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found from the
Equator to 24N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles/South America
coast. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident near the Canary Islands north of 20N
between the northwest African coast and 22W. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending along
roughly 25N through the central Bahamas will lift north through
late Fri, and then reach from the north-central Atlantic to the
northern Bahamas through early next week.

$$

Chan
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