[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is mixed with the ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong, are from 19N southward, between 44W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N
southward between 66W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 13N
southward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving westward
10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the Caribbean Sea waters, and inland areas of
Central America from 17N southward from 80W westward. The
monsoon trough runs from Colombia near 09N75W, through Panama
from east-to-west, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 12N between 74W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau.
The ITCZ is along 04N06W 04N12W 06N20W 06N32W, and along 06N
between 36W and 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward between 10W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
28N82W in Florida, to 29N86W in the NE Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: no significant deep convection is related
directly to the surface trough. Broad surface low pressure
covers the areas from NW Cuba, to the Straits of Florida and
south Florida, to 30N70W in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas
that are from 21N to 31N between 70W and 86W, from the NW
Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into
the Atlantic Ocean.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak surface
ridge extends from the north central Gulf of Mexico,
southwestward, to 22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Fresh to
locally strong SE winds are primarily W of 94W. The
comparatively fastest wind speeds are off south Texas, mainly
within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate easterly winds are offshore
northern Yucatan. Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere. The
wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 94W westward, and
they range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the area.

High pressure will dominate the basin through the week and into
the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will
prevail in the NW Gulf through late this morning due to a
locally tight pressure gradient. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse off the northern Yucatan coast on Wed evening. Otherwise,
fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected with the high
pressure regime.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface low pressure covers the areas from NW Cuba, to the
Straits of Florida and south Florida, to 30N70W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the areas that are from 21N to 31N between 70W and
86W, from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, across
Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean.

Two tropical waves are moving through the Caribbean Sea. Most of
the precipitation is concentrated either in the northwestern
corner of the area, or in the southwestern corner of the area.

Fresh to strong winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea.
The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore Colombia and
NW Venezuela. The wave heights in that area range from 5 feet to 8
feet. Moderate to fresh winds, and wave heights that range from 4
feet to 6 feet, are in the rest of the central Caribbean Sea, and
in the eastern section. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in
the NW Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle winds are in the
southwestern corner of the area. The wave heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet in the NW corner and in the SW corner.

The Atlc Ocean ridge extends from the eastern Atlc Ocean,
southwestward to the central Bahamas, and will maintain a modest
pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most
of the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the south
central Caribbean Sea, including in the Gulf of Venezuela,
mainly at night through Sat. Fresh winds will pulse each night
through the end of the week across the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface low pressure covers the areas from NW Cuba, to the
Straits of Florida and south Florida, to 30N70W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the areas that are from 21N to 31N between 70W and
86W, from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, across
Florida, and into the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough is along 31N54W 26N60W 25N67W. The trough is at
the end of a frontal boundary that merged with the Post-Tropical
Cyclone Alex yesterday. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 24N northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N29W, to 30N42W 25N52W 23N70W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward, away from surface trough.

The winds W of 65W are light to moderate, although stronger
winds are likely with the heaviest precipitation that is near
the Bahamas. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet.
Fresh to strong W-SW winds are between the surface trough and
65W. The wave heights in this area range from 8 feet to 12 feet.
The comparatively highest wave heights are in the waters that
are from 30N to Bermuda between 60W and 65W.

Fresh to strong winds, and high seas trailing Post-tropical
Alex, will continue to affect the NE zones, with wind
diminishing by late this morning and seas gradually subsiding,
through mid-week. High pressure extends westward into the
central Bahamas. A surface trough along about 26N will linger
and drift S across the E waters through Thu. High pressure will
strengthen across the region by Sat to produce fresh S to SW
winds to the north of 27N and west of 70W.

$$
mt/era
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