[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 31W and south of 13N. The
wave is moving westward near 20 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed S of 08.5N and between 29W
and 38W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 48W, south of 13N and moving
westward near 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is present from 06N to 10N and between 43W and 58W
along the coast of NE South America.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 68W, south of 14N and over
western Venezuela, and moving westward near 15-20 knots. No
convection is noted near the wave axis, while scattered moderate
to strong convection is well inland over Venezuela S of 04N
within 120 nm of axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 83W, south of 13N
and extends across Costa Rica and into the tropical eastern
Pacific. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
09.5N to 14.5N between the coast of Colombia and the NE coast of
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near the coast of Senegal
near 12N16W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ stretches from
06N14W to 06N30W and then from 06N33W to 04.5N47W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N
between 10W and 19W. other information on convection is discussed
in the tropical waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico and fairly tranquil
weather conditions prevail. Nocturnal convection across SE Mexico
has recently moved into the waters of the Bay of Campeche just
offshore of the coast of the state of Tabasco. A mid level trough
extending from Post- Tropical Cyclone Alex over the NW Atlantic,
reaches across South Florida and into the SE Gulf. The convergent
low-level winds continue to create a plume of tropical moisture
from the Se Gulf across southern Florida and the NW Bahamas, where
middle level dynamics are generating a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms just to the north of the Lower Florida Keys and the
Dry Tortugas and extend southward over the Straits of Florida.

A modest pressure gradient exists in the western Gulf between the
weak high pressure near Florida and lower pressures over Mexico
and Texas. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong SE winds are
occurring primarily W of 94W. The strongest winds are noted off
south Texas, mainly within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate easterly
winds are present offshore northern Yucatan, while light to gentle
breezes are prevalent elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted W of
94W and 1-3 ft in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE to S
return flow will prevail in the west-central and NW Gulf through
this morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient, before
diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern
Yucatan coast Wed evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine
conditions are expected with the high pressure regime.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent low-level winds are producing active convection
described above in the SW Caribbean Sea, occurring behind a
tropical wave. The subtropical ridge, centered SW of the Azores,
extends to the central Bahamas and is producing a moderate pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over northern
South America. Recent scatterometer satellite data captured fresh
to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela.
Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
in the rest of the central Caribbean and eastern portion of the
basin, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE
winds are observed in the NW Caribbean, where scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring across western Cuba and
the adjacent Caribbean coastal waters. Light to gentle winds
prevail in the SW Caribbean, to the south of the monsoon trough
along 11.5N. Seas in the waters discussed are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlc ridge extends from the eastern Atlc west-
southwest to the central Bahamas, and will maintain a modest
pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of
the Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly
at night through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex has merged with a frontal system across
the NW Atlantic near 39N53W overnight and is quickly NE. However,
a surface trough extends from this system, entering the basin
near 31N58W and continuing southwestward to the NW Bahamas, then
across South Florida and into the SE Gulf. Ample tropical
moisture is streaming northeast and eastward, to the south of
this trough, where scattered moderate strong convection is
present from 23N to 29N between 75W and 80W, while scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere N of 25N between 65W and 75W. A
cold front precedes the trough across the northern waters from
31N52W to 28N56W. A 90 nm wide line of moderate convection is
shifting eastward between the trough and the front. Winds W of
65W are light to moderate, although stronger winds are likely with
the heaviest convection across the northern Bahamas. Seas in that
area are 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong W-SW winds are between the cold
front and 65W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with highest
seas near 31N57W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical
ridge positioned SW of the Azores, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics result in
fresh to locally strong NE winds S of a line from 31N20W near the
Canary Islands to 17N61W near the Lesser Antilles. The strongest
winds are occurring offshore Western Sahara, Morocco and the
waters surrounding the Canary Islands. NE-E swell has been
producing seas of 6-9 ft across most of the central and eastern
Atlantic. Highest seas are found W of the Cabo Verde Islands, near
17N30W. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within
the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and high seas associated
with Post-tropical Alex will continue to affect the NE zones,
with wind diminishing this morning and seas gradually subsiding
through mid-week. High pressure extends westward and south of the
torugh into the central Bahamas. This surface trough will linger
across the NE waters through Thu. High pressure will strengthen
across the waters west of 55W by Sat and help to produce fresh to
strong S to SW winds across the NW waters.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net